The two openers this weekend will be forgotten in several days or weeks, while Oblivion has a good chance of staying at #1 in its second weekend and 42 will be the other holdover still above the significant $10 million weekend mark. But that’s about it for the box office. The top 12 films this weekend will be under $85 million down over 30% from the average for this weekend the past few years. 2013 remains stuck in the mud.
Opening at around 2,900 theaters Friday (an average theater count), Pain and Gain from Paramount and director Michael Bay should average a just okay $6,500 per theater for the weekend (for an $18.8 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are somewhat positive: 59% positive reviews (with fewer than 20 reviews tallied so far). Pain and Gain should be on course for $57 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday (slightly below average), The Big Wedding from Lionsgate should average a lame $3,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.2 million opening weekend). No reviews so far — pending stinker alert because it’s being hidden! The Big Wedding should be headed for maybe $23 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 26-28, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Pain and Gain | Par | R | 59% | 18.8 | 57 | |
| The Big Wedding | LG | R | n/a | 9.2 | 23 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
A look at the holdovers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS April 26-28, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Oblivion | Uni | -48% | 19.3 | 103 | |
| 42 | WB | -34% | 11.7 | 102 | |
| The Croods | Fox | -30% | 6.5 | 178 | |
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Par | -45% | 3.2 | 126 | |
| Place Beyond the Pines | Focus | -38% | 3.1 | 28 | |
| Scary Movie V | Weins | -53% | 2.9 | 32 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | -39% | 2.8 | 99 | |
| Jurassic Park 3D | Uni | -54% | 1.9 | 50 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $121 million total, ranking 29th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $97 million (while 2011 was $145 million and 2010 was $92 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $83 million, down 31% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down a significant 14% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
4.27.2012
The Pirates! Band of Misfits SONY PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89
Five-Year Engagement UNI R Jason Segel Emily Blunt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
Safe LG R Jason Statham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
The Raven REL R John Cucask Luke Evans
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10
4.29.2011
Fast Five UNI PG13 Vin Diesel Paul Walker
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $75 Actual: $86
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $212 Actual: $210
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $415
Prom DIS PG Aimee Teegarden
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil WEINS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
Dylan Dog: Dead of Night FREE PG13 Brandon Routh Sam Huntington
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $2 Actual: $1
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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