Articles

April 23, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions APRIL 25-27

Weekend #17 of 2014 is looking like a not so hot $99 million for the top 12 films, 11% below the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($111 million). 

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (somewhat above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Other Woman from Fox should average $5,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are middling: 47% positive so far. The Other Woman is on track for around $62 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $58 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $120 million.

Opening at around 2,400 theaters Friday, Brick Mansions from Relativity should average $3,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). No early reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. Brick Mansions is on track for around $23 million domestic. Limited overseas potential: maybe $12 million. Worldwide box office target: $35 million.

Opening at about 2,000 theaters Friday, The Quiet Ones from Lionsgate/Summit should average $3,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). Mediocre reviews at RottenTomatoes currently: 50% positive so far. The Quiet Ones is on track for around $16 million domestic. Overseas forecast is a small $7 million, giving The Quiet Ones a worldwide box office target of $23 million.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

April 25-27, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
The Other Woman Fox PG13 47% 17.5 62
Brick Mansions Rel PG13 n/a 9.5 23
The Quiet Ones LG/Sum PG13 50% 6.5 16
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Among the holdovers, Heaven Is For Real joins Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier as the significant players.

RETURNING FILMS

April 25-27, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis -40% 15.4 265
Heaven Is for Real Sony -34% 14.9 76
Rio 2 Fox -40% 13.4 131
Transcendence WB -55% 4.9 22
A Haunted House 2 Open R -56% 3.9 19
Draft Day LG/Sum -40% 3.4 34
Divergent LG/Sum -39% 3.4 149

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $111 million total, ranking 36th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $82 million (while 2012 was $97 million, 2011 was $145 million and 2010 was $92 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $99 million, 11% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but 21% above the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

4.26.2013

Pain and Gain Par R Mark Wahlberg The Rock
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $50 Actual: $50
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36

The Big Wedding LG/Sum R Robert DeNiro Susan Sarandon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

4.27.2012

The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89

Five-Year Engagement Uni R Jason Segel Emily Blunt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24

Safe LG R Jason Statham
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23

The Raven Rel R John Cucask Luke Evans
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.