>Weekend #16 of 2012 looks like it will be about $105 million for the top 12 films, down 14% from last year’s comparable weekend (led by Rio’s second weekend) but up 6% from the four-year average for this weekend. The Hunger Games should finally fall out of first place, dropping about 38% this weekend to $13 million and third place. Playing in relatively few theaters, Think Like a Man (written by Steve Harvey) should see some strong business per theater, putting it at #1 with $22 million for the weekend. The Lucky One should have a different profile: lots of theaters with so-so to slightly above average grosses per theater, translating to a $19 million opening. And the proximity of Earth Day will make many think they should see the new “Disneynature” film Chimpanzee, but most will move on to their next thought. Look for a quiet $6-7 million opening weekend.
Opening at a relatively low 1,800 theaters, Think Like a Man from Sony should average a very good $12,300 per theater (for $22 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a middling 45% positive for the movie written by Steve Harvey (based on his book). Think Like a Man is on track for a preliminary $74 million domestic.
Opening at a more normal 3,000 theaters, The Lucky One from Warner Brothers should average a slightly above par $6,400 per theater (for $19 million Friday-Sunday). Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at only 40% positive. The Lucky One (starring Zac Efron and Taylor Schilling) is on track for a preliminary $55 million domestic.
Opening at around 1,500 theaters, Chimpanzee from Disney should average a weak $4,300 per theater (for $6.5 million Friday-Sunday). Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a solid 67% positive, but most people who see this film will view it at home. Chimpanzee is on track for a preliminary $21 million domestic, which would put it behind the first and most successful Disneynature film Earth ($32.0 million domestic in 2009) but ahead of Oceans ($19.4 million in 2010) and African Cats ($15.4 million in 2011).
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
April 20-22 Positive Weekend Total*
Think Like a Man Sony PG13 45% $22.0 $ 74
The Lucky One WB PG13 40% $19.0 $ 55
Chimpanzee Dis G 67% $ 6.5 $ 21
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Hunger Games and The Three Stooges should be the most relevant holdovers, with fairly low weekend drops and grosses over $10 million for the weekend.
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
April 13-15 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
The Hunger Games LG -38% $13.0 $382
Three Stooges Fox -42% $10.0 $ 60
Cabin in the Woods LG -47% $ 7.8 $ 46
Titanic (3D) Par -37% $ 7.5 $ 80
American Reunion Uni -45% $ 5.8 $ 64
Mirror Mirror Rel -41% $ 4.1 $ 69
21 Jump Street Sony -34% $ 4.3 $140
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $99 million total, ranking 40th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was an unusually strong $121 million (driven by a strong second weekend for Rio and a solid Tyler Perry opening), while the same weekend in 2010 was $90 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like an okay $105 million, down 14% from this weekend last year but up 6% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years