Only one new opener (Oblivion) and only one decent holdover (42) mean it’s pretty slim pickings at the box office this weekend: less than $100 million for the top 12 films, down 11-22% from the same weekend in recent years.
Opening at around 3,800 theaters Friday (a very high number), Oblivion from Universal should average a decent $8,750 per theater for the weekend (for a $33 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are somewhat positive: 63% positive reviews so far. Read Mitch Salem’s review here. Oblivion should be on course for $93 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 19-21, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Oblivion | Uni | PG13 | 63% | 33.0 | 93 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
A look at the holdovers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS April 19-21, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| 42 | WB | -31% | 18.9 | 90 | |
| The Croods | Fox | -56% | 9.0 | 173 | |
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Par | -72% | 5.8 | 129 | |
| Scary Movie V | Weins | -63% | 5.3 | 29 | |
| Place Beyond the Pines | Focus | +33% | 5.2 | 14 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | -55% | 4.6 | 96 | |
| Jurassic Park 3D | Uni | -78% | 4.2 | 53 | |
| Evil Dead | Sony | -84% | 4.2 | 60 | |
| Oz the Great and Powerful | Dis | -63% | 3.0 | 233 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $110 million total, ranking 37th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $126 million (while 2011 was $121 million and 2010 was $90 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $98 million, down 11% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down a sizable 22% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
4.20.2012
Think Like a Man SONY PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $102 Actual: $92
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
The Lucky One WB PG13 Zac Efron Taylor Schilling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $32
Chimpanzee DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
4.22.2011
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family LG PG13 Bow Wow Tyler Perry
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Water for Elephants FOX PG13 Reese Witherspoon Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $58
African Cats DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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