The box office this weekend should be slightly off the pace for this weekend the last few years, cooling off a bit after a few solid weekends. Two new films open, and it appears 42 will lead the way with just under $20 million.
Opening at around 2,900 theaters Friday (a very average number), 42 from Warner Brothers should average a respectable but not that impressive $6,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $19 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mixed: 56% positive reviews so far. Read Mitch Salem’s review here. 42 should be on course for $57 million domestic.
Opening at approximately 3,000 theaters Friday, Scary Movie V from Weinstein should average a middling $5,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.5 million opening weekend). No reviews for the movie — it’s being hidden until the last minute. Scary Movie V is on track for about $35 million domestic (a touch below the $43 million for Scary Movie 4 two years ago this weekend).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 12-14, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| 42 | WB | PG13 | 56% | 19.0 | 57 | |
| Scary Movie V | Weins | PG13 | n/a | 16.5 | 35 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
A look at the holdovers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS April 12-14, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Croods | Fox | -31% | 14.3 | 185 | |
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Par | -43% | 11.8 | 137 | |
| Evil Dead | Sony | -60% | 10.4 | 72 | |
| Jurassic Park 3D | Uni | -50% | 9.3 | 57 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | -36% | 6.6 | 94 | |
| Oz the Great and Powerful | Dis | -37% | 5.1 | 240 | |
| Tyler Perry’s Temptation | LG | -53% | 4.7 | 59 | |
| The Host | OpenRoad | -52% | 2.5 | 25 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $109 million total, ranking 38th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $107 million (while 2011 was $117 million and 2010 was $112 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $105 million, down 3% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down a negligible 1% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
4.13.2012
Three Stooges FOX PG Sean Hayes Will Sasso
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
Cabin in the Woods LG R Chris Hemsworth Richard Jenkins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
Lockout FILMDIS PG13 Guy Pearce Maggie Grace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
4.15.2011
Rio FOX G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $44 Actual: $39
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $152 Actual: $143
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $340
Scream 4 WEINS R David Arquette Neve Campbell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
The Conspirator ROAD PG13 James McAvoy Robin Wright Penn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $11
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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