Weekend #36 of 2015 is looking like $54 million for the top 12 films this weekend, a touch better than last year but still below the norm for this weekend, normally the slowest of the year (see comparisons below).
The Transporter Refueled from EuropaCorp should open with a $7.8 million three-day weekend and about $9.6 million Friday-Monday. No early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Transporter Refueled is on track for around $19 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $49 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $68 million.
That would be above the $44 million worldwide for Transporter (released 10.11.2002 with $25 million domestic and $19 million overseas) but below the $85 million worldwide for Transporter 2 (released 9.2.2005 with $43 million domestic and $42 million overseas) and below the $109 million worldwide for Transporter 3 (released 11.26.2008 with $32 million domestic and $77 million overseas).
A Walk in the Woods from Broad Green Pictures should open with a $4.2 million Friday-Sunday weekend and about $6.5 million Wednesday through Monday. Critics are mediocre: 48% positive reviews so far. A Walk in the Woods is on track for around $16 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $12 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $28 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND September 4-6, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Transporter Refueled | Eur | PG13 | n/a | 7.8 | 19 | |
| A Walk In the Woods | BG | R | 48% | 4.2 | 16 | |
Straight Outta Compton remains the top holdover and should be #1 overall this weekend, but it’s that time of year when the #1 film for the weekend is under $10 million.
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RETURNING FILMS September 4-6, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | -33% | 8.8 | 170 | |
| War Room | Sony | -35% | 7.4 | 30 | |
| Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation | Par | -15% | 6.9 | 194 | |
| No Escape | Weins | -43% | 4.6 | 18 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | -36% | 2.8 | 46 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | -20% | 2.5 | 178 | |
| Sinister 2 | Foc | -47% | 2.5 | 22 | |
| Hitman: Agent 47 | Fox | -45% | 2.3 | 21 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $59 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 52nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $51 million (while 2013 was $66 million, 2012 was $52 million and 2011 was $65 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a soft $54 million, down -9% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but actually up +4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
9.5.2014
The Identical FREE PG Erin Cottrell Amanda Crew
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $3 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
9.6.2013
Riddick Uni R Vin Diesel Karl Urban
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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