Articles

September 16, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 9.18-20.2015

Weekend #38 of 2015 is looking like $120 million for the top 12 films this weekend, well above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials from Fox should open with a $40.5 million weekend. Reviews are fairly positive: 59% positive at RottenTomatoes. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is on track for around $119 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $285 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $404 million.

This would be up from the $340 million worldwide for The Maze Runner (released 9.19.2014) and totaled $102 million domestic and $238 million overseas.

Black Mass from Warner Brothers should open with a $28.5 million weekend.  Solid critical response: 82% positive in early reviews.  Black Mass is on track for around $89 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $81 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $170 million.

Also, Everest from Universal previews this weekend at over 500 Imax screens this weekend (probably headed for $7.5 million) before opening wide next weekend.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

September 18-20, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials Fox PG13 59% 40.5 119
Black Mass WB PG13 82% 28.5 89
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


 Not much support at the box office from the holdovers, with $5 or 6 million enough to top the list of returning films this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

September 18-20, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Perfect Guy Sony -54% 11.8 70
The Visit Uni -57% 10.8 71
War Room Sony -28% 5.6 62
A Walk In the Woods BG -36% 3.0 31
Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation Par -37% 2.6 203
Straight Outta Compton Uni -48% 2.0 169

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $87 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 48th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $92 million (while 2013 was $73 million, 2012 was $75 million and 2011 was $106 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a strong $120 million, up +39% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +30% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

9.19.2014

Maze Runner Fox PG13 Dylan O’Brien Kaya Scodelario
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $101 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $238

A Walk Among the Tombstones Uni R Liam Neeson Dan Stevens
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $27

This Is Where I Leave You WB R Jason Bateman Tina Fey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7

9.20.2013

Prisoners WB R Hugh Jackman Jake Gyllenhaal
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $69 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $61

Battle of the Year Sony PG13 Josh Holloway Chris Brown
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.