Weekend #19 of 2015 is looking like $126 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat below the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Hot Pursuit from Warner Brothers should average a somewhat above average $6,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $17.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not supportive, however: 17% positive overall. Hot Pursuit is on track for around $52 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $30 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $82 million.
Opening at around 700 theaters Friday, The D Train from IFC should average a tepid $1,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $1.5 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are weak: 33% positive overall. The D Train is on track for around $4 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $5 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 8-10, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Hot Pursuit | WB | PG13 | 17% | 17.5 | 52 | |
| The D Train | IFC | R | 33% | 1.5 | 4 | |
Avengers: Age of Ultron should almost single-handedly support the weekend box office again.
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RETURNING FILMS May 8-10, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | -56% | 84.8 | 545 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG/Sum | -29% | 4.4 | 40 | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | -35% | 4.3 | 349 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | -36% | 3.8 | 65 | |
| Home | Fox | -29% | 2.5 | 162 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | -39% | 1.7 | 197 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | -25% | 1.7 | 16 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | -28% | 1.0 | 31 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $143 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 19th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $127 million (while 2013 was $152 million, 2012 was $162 million and 2011 was $129 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a soft $126 million, down -12% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend virtually the same as (-1%) the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
5.9.2014
Neighbors Uni R Seth Rogen Rose Byrne
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $155 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $118
Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return Clarius PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $7 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10
Moms’ Night Out Sony PG Sarah Drew Sean Astin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $7 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
5.10.2013
Great Gatsby WB PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Tobey Maguire
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $50
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $146 Actual: $145
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $206
Peeples LG/Sum PG13 Craig Robinson Kerry Washington
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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