Articles

May 27, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 5.29-31.2015

Weekend #22 of 2015 is looking like $123 million for the top 12 films this weekend, significantly below the norm for this weekend.

San Andreas from Warner Brothers should open with a $36.0 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are barely tilting negative: 45% positive overall. San Andreas is on track for around $104 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $235 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $339 million.

Aloha from Sony should open with a $12.5 million three-day weekend. No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Aloha is on track for around $32 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in another $26 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $58 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

May 29-31, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
San Andreas WB PG13 45% 36.0 104
Aloha Sony PG13 n/a 12.5 32
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Business is starting to get thin among the holdovers, even toward the top of the heap.

RETURNING FILMS

May 29-31, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Tomorrowland Dis -47% 17.4 90
Pitch Perfect 2 Uni -48% 15.9 192
Mad Max: Fury Road WB -45% 13.5 155
Avengers: Age of Ultron Dis -46% 11.8 454
Poltergeist Fox -63% 8.4 57
Hot Pursuit WB -41% 2.2 32
Furious 7 Uni -50% 1.1 353

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $152 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 13th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $160 million (while 2013 was $161 million, 2012 was $135 million and 2011 was $154 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $123 million, down -19% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -23% from the same weekend last year. 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

5.30.2014

Maleficent Dis PG Angelina Jolie Sharlto Copley
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $58 Actual: $69
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $213 Actual: $241
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $517

A Million Ways to Die in the West Uni R Seth MacFarlane Charlize Theron
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43

Chef Open Road R Jon Favreau Sofia Vergara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $15

5.31.2013

Now You See Me LG/Sum PG13 Jesse Eisenberg Isla Fisher
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $118
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $234

After Earth Sony PG13 Will Smith Jaden Smith
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $65 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $183

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.