Articles

March 9, 2016
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 3.11-13.2016

Weekend #11 of 2016 is looking like $128 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

March 11-13, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
10 Cloverfield Lane Par PG13 94% 26.0 79 110 189
The Brothers Grimsby Sony R 53% 7.5 25 65 90
The Young Messiah Focus PG13 n/a 8.0 19 3 22
The Perfect Match LG R n/a 4.5 9 1 10
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

March 11-13, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Zootopia Dis -34% 49.4 260
Deadpool Fox -37% 10.5 356
London Has Fallen Focus -58% 9.0 59
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot Par -50% 3.7 25
Risen Sony -37% 2.5 38
Gods of Egypt LG -58% 2.2 30
Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox -37% 2.2 147
The Revenant Fox -35% 2.2 185

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $104 million total, ranking 40th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2014 was $102 million, 2013 was $96 million and 2012 was $98 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $128 million, up +22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +5% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

3.13.2015

Cinderella Dis PG Lily James Richard Madden
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $70 Actual: $68
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $210 Actual: $201
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $342

Run All Night WB R Liam Neeson Joel Kinnaman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45

3.14.2014

Need for Speed Dis PG13 Aaron Paul Imogen Poots
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $160

Tyler Perry’s Single Moms Club LG/Sum PG13 Tyler Perry Nia Long
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.