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February 18, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 2.20-22.2015

Weekend #8 of 2015 is looking like $119 million for the top 12 films this weekend (Friday-Sunday), another weekend well above the normal volume for this weekend (see track below).

Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Hot Tub Time Machine 2 from Paramount should average $4,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $12.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.]  No early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes — never a sign of confidence. Hot Tub Time Machine 2 is on track for around $32 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $22 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $54 million.

This would be below the $64.6 million worldwide for Hot Tub Time Machine (released 3.26.2010 by MGM) $50.3 million domestic and $14.3 million overseas. 

Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, McFarland, USA from Disney should average $3,900 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $10.5 million opening weekend). In early reviews, the film is averaging a fairly strong 67% positive score. McFarland, USA is on track for around $35 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $36 million.

Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, The DUFF from Lionsgate and CBS Films should average $3,100 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $7.5 million opening weekend).  In early reviews, the film is averaging a really good 89% positive score. The DUFF is on track for around $30 million domestic, with some decent word of mouth keeping it from flaming out very quickly. Overseas the film could bring in around $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

February 20-22, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Hot Tub Time Machine 2 Par R n/a 12.5 32
McFarland, USA Dis PG 67% 10.5 35
The DUFF LG/Sum PG13 89% 7.5 30
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman join SpongeBob as the main holdovers providing significant support for the weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

February 20-22, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Fifty Shades of Grey Foc/Uni -69% 26.3 215
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Par -40% 19.0 175
Kingsman: The Secret Service Fox -48% 19.0 109
American Sniper WB -38% 10.2 356
Jupiter Ascending WB -56% 4.1 47
Paddington Weins -27% 3.0 72
The Imitation Game Weins -24% 2.7 85

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $99 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 42nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $98 million (while 2013 was $88 million, 2012 was $114 million and 2011 was $96 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very decent $119 million, up +20% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +21% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

2.21.2014

Pompeii Sony PG13 Kit Harrington Emily Browning
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $95

3 Days to Kill Rel PG13 Kevin Costner Hailee Steinfled
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22

2.22.2013

Snitch LG/Sum PG13 The Rock Susan Sarandon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Dark Skies Weins PG13 Keri Russell Dakota Goyo
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.