Articles

February 17, 2016
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 2.19-21.2016

Weekend #8 of 2016 is looking like $133 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norms for this normally sleepy weekend (see comparisons below).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

February 19-21, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
Risen Sony PG13 n/a 9.5 23 10 33
Race Focus PG13 n/a 9.0 27 5 32
The Witch A24 R 87% 6.5 16 18 34
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

February 19-21, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Deadpool Fox -49% 67.0 380
Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox -33% 13.3 135
How to Be Single WB -67% 6.0 50
The Revenant Fox -27% 4.8 182
Zoolander 2 Par -66% 4.7 36
Star Wars: The Force Awakens Dis -32% 4.2 930
Hail, Caesar! Uni -60% 2.6 39

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $102 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $107 million (while 2014 was $98 million, 2013 was $88 million and 2012 was $114 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $133 million, up +31% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +24% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

2.20.2015

McFarland, USA Dis PG Maria Bello Kevin Costner
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

The DUFF LG/Sum PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $9

Hot Tub Time Machine 2 Par R Adam Scott Clark Duke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

2.21.2014

Pompeii Sony PG13 Kit Harrington Emily Browning
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $95

3 Days to Kill Rel PG13 Kevin Costner Hailee Steinfled
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.