Articles

February 10, 2016
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 2.12-14.2016

Weekend #7 of 2016 is looking like $153 million for the top 12 films this weekend (for the three-day Friday-Sunday portion), near the norm for this weekend but below last year’s torrid pace (see comparisons below).

Deadpool from Fox should open with $67.0 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $195 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $240 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $435 million.

Zoolander No. 2 from Paramount should open with $19.0 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $65 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $55 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $120 million.

How to Be Single from Warner Brothers should open with $14.5 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $35 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $30 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $65 million.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

February 12-14, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Deadpool Fox R 81% 67.0 195
Zoolander no. 2 Par PG13 41% 19.0 65
How to Be Single WB R n/a 14.5 35
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

February 12-14, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox -9% 19.3 128
Hail, Caesar! Uni -46% 6.2 40
Star Wars: The Force Awakens Dis -16% 5.9 925
The Revenant Fox -20% 5.6 175
The Choice LG -42% 3.5 14
Ride Along 2 Uni -26% 3.4 82
The Finest Hours Dis -41% 2.8 30
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies Sony -48% 2.8 12

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $158 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $201 million (while 2014 was $160 million, 2013 was $126 million and 2012 was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $153 million, down -3% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -24% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

2.13.2015

Fifty Shades of Grey Uni R Dakota Johnson Jamie Dornan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68 Actual: $85
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $166 Actual: $166
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $404

Kingsman: The Secret Service Fox R Colin Firth Samuel L. Jackson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $116 Actual: $128
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $286

2.14.2014

RoboCop Sony PG13 Joel Kinnaman Gary Oldman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $68 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $184

About Last Night Sony R Kevin Hart Michael Ealy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Endless Love Uni PG13 Alex Pettyfer Gabriella Wilde
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11

Winter’s Tale WB PG13 Colin Farrell Russell Crowe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.