Weekend #50 of 2014 is looking like $81 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down a big 36% from the norm for this weekend and a similar 43% from the same weekend last year. The Hobbit launched this weekend the last two years, and this year it shifts to next weekend (one week later relatively on the calendar). Exodus doesn’t look like it will pick up the slack, and the holdovers are already getting stale.
Opening at over 3,300 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Exodus: Gods and Kings from Fox should average $8,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $28.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Exodus is averaging a middling 45% positive reviews. Exodus is on track for around $120 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $330 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $450 million.
Opening at 975 theaters Friday, Top Five from Paramount should average $10,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.5 million opening three-day weekend). In early reviews, Top Five is averaging a terrific 90% positive reviews. Top Five is on track for around $75 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $8 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $82 million.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Dec 12-14, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Exodus: Gods and Kings | Fox | PG13 | 45% | 28.5 | 120 | |
| Top Five | Par | R | 90% | 10.5 | 75 | |
Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 is still the top holdover and the only one over $10 million this weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS Dec 12-14, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | -47% | 11.8 | 325 | |
| Penguins of Madagascar | Fox | -39% | 6.7 | 85 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | -33% | 5.4 | 205 | |
| Horrible Bosses | WB | -41% | 5.0 | 58 | |
| Interstellar | Par | -39% | 4.8 | 182 | |
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | -45% | 2.4 | 83 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | -15% | 2.4 | 168 | |
| Theory of Everything | Foc/Uni | -13% | 2.3 | 23 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $127 million total, ranking 26th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $141 million (while 2012 was $130 million, 2011 was $110 million and 2010 was $128 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $81 million, down 36% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 43% from the same weekend last year, which was anchored by a Hobbit film (as this weekend in 2012 was also). This year, the Hobbit comes a week later on the calendar (the weekend of December 19-21).
This Weekend Last Two Years
12.13.2013
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug WB PG13 Martin Freeman Ian McKellen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $82 Actual: $74
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $203 Actual: $258
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $700
Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas LG/Sum PG13 Tyler Perry
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
12.14.2012
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB PG13 Martin Freeman Ian McKellen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $105 Actual: $85
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $239 Actual: $303
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $714
Check back throughout the long holiday weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
