Weekend #47 of 2014 is looking like $227 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 22% from the norm for this weekend and similar to this weekend last year (which also featured the opening of a Hunger Games installment).
Opening at over 4,000 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 from Lionsgate/Summit should average $39,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $156.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Mockingjay, Part 1 is averaging 71% positive reviews (mostly positive but well below the 89% for Catching Fire and 84% for Hunger Games). Mockingjay, Part 1 is on track for around $415 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $475 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $890 million.
This would be slightly above the $864.6 million worldwide for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (released 11.22.2013 with a $158.1 million opening weekend, $424.7 million total domestic and $439.9 million overseas) and well above the $691.2 million worldwide for The Hunger Games (released 3.23.2012 with a $152.5 million opening weekend, $408.0 million total domestic and $283.3 million overseas).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Nov 21-23, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 | LG/Sum | PG13 | 71% | 156.0 | 415 | |
A trio of holdovers will do very significant business this weekend: Big Hero 6, Dumb and Dumber To and Interstellar each near or above $20 million for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS Nov 21-23, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | -39% | 21.0 | 204 | |
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | -54% | 16.6 | 111 | |
| Interstellar | Par | -43% | 16.1 | 170 | |
| Beyond the Lights | Rel | -48% | 3.2 | 26 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | -39% | 2.8 | 166 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | -36% | 2.4 | 43 | |
| Fury | Sony | -43% | 2.2 | 88 | |
| Birdman | FoxS | -29% | 1.8 | 30 | |
| Ouija | Uni | -46% | 1.6 | 53 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $186 million total, ranking 6th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $218 million (while 2012 was $200 million, 2011 was $155 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $227 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.22.2013
Hunger Games: Catching Fire LG/Sum PG13 Jennifer Lawrence Josh Hutcherson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $171 Actual: $158
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $488 Actual: $425
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $440
Dallas Buyers Club Uni R Matthew McConaughey Jared Leto
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Delivery Man Dis PG13 Vince Vaughn Cobie Smulders
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
The Christmas Candle EchoLight PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $1 Actual: $2
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
11.23.2012
Life of Pi FoxPG Suraj Sharma
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $82 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $484
Rise of the Guardians Par/DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $82 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $200
Red Dawn FilmDistrict PG13 Josh Hutcherson Chris Hemsworth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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