Articles

November 12, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 11.14-16.2014

Weekend #46 of 2014 is looking like $128 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down 33% from the norm for this weekend.  

Opening at 3,152 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Dumb and Dumber To from Universal should average a solid $10,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $33.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Dumb and Dumber To is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $75 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $170 million.  This would be below the $247.3 million worldwide for Dumb and Dumber (released 12.16.1994 by New Line with $127.2 million domestic and $120.1 million overseas) but well above the $39.3 million worldwide for Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd (the one not directed by the Farrelly brothers, released 6.13.2003 by New Line with $26.3 million domestic and $12.9 million overseas).

Opening at around 1,600 theaters Friday, Beyond the Lights from Relativity should average a slightly above average $6,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.0 million three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is very supportive: 91% positive in the limited number of early reviews, so it could stick around longer than its opening would suggest. Beyond the Lights is on track for around $39 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $6 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $45 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

Nov 14-16, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Dumb and Dumber To Uni PG13 n/a 33.0 95
Beyond the Lights Rel PG13 91% 10.0 39
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Last weekend’s openers will provide massive support to the weekend box office.

RETURNING FILMS

Nov 14-16, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Big Hero 6 Dis -36% 35.9 193
Interstellar Par -49% 24.4 138
Gone Girl Fox -28% 4.5 166
St. Vincent Weins -28% 3.9 43
Fury Sony -37% 3.6 85
Ouija Uni -45% 3.2 54
Nightcrawler OpenR -47% 2.9 36
Birdman FoxS +25% 2.9 n/a

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $191 million total, ranking 3rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $119 million (while 2012 was $242 million, 2011 was $215 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $128 million, down 33% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up 8% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

11.15.2013

Best Man Holiday Uni R Morris Chestnut Taye Diggs
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $70
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

11.16.2012

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Summit PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $148 Actual: $141
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $318 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $537

Lincoln Dis PG13 Daniel Day-Lewis Sally Field
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $182
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.