October 5, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions 10.7-9.2016

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf

Weekend #41 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films:


October 7-9, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
The Girl on the Train Uni R 54% 29.0 85 110 195
The Birth of a Nation Fox R 83% 9.0 35 20 55
Middle School: Worst Years of My Life LG PG n/a 6.5 14 1 15
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.  The Overseas Total is also a ShowBuzzDaily projection based on similar movies and their performance outside North America.



October 7-9, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast  Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Miss Peregrine’s Home Fox -48% 15.1 81
Deepwater Horizon LG -43% 11.5 66
Storks WB -38% 8.3 75
The Magnificent Seven Sony -56% 6.8 99
Sully WB -38% 5.2 131
Masterminds Rel -57% 2.8 17


A look at last week’s opening weekend forecast accuracy:

      • Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children: $28.5 million predicted and $28.9 million actual
      • Deepwater Horizon: $19.5 million predicted and $20.2 million actual
      • Masterminds$6.5 million predicted and $6.5 million actual
      • Queen of Katwe$4.0 million predicted and $2.5 million actual

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.