Weekend Box Office Predictions 10.24-26.2014 (Updated)

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[UPDATE: The predictions for the films opening this weekend have been revised, reflecting corrections to some key computations.]

Weekend #43 of 2014 is looking like $100 million $109 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 23% from the norm for this weekend.

Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday (just below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Ouija from Universal should average a very good $7,400 $9,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $20.0 $25.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Ouija is on track for around $48 million $61 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $37 million $46 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $85 million $107 million.

Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, John Wick from Lionsgate/Summit should average a mediocre $4,400 $5,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $11.0 million $14.5 million opening three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is very strong, however: 90% positive so far. John Wick is on track for around $41 million $51 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $68 million $85 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $109 million $136 million.

Expanding to around 600 theaters Friday, St. Vincent from Weinstein should average around $7,000 $7,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $3.5 million $4.5 million quasi-opening three-day weekend). Reviews are positive but not over the top: 74% positive so far. St. Vincent is on track for around $17 million $20 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $43 million $50 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $60 million $70 million.