Articles

October 15, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 10.17-19.2014

Weekend #42 of 2014 is looking like $136 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 22% from the norm for this weekend.

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Fury from Sony should average a very solid $9,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $30.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is very solid: 79% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes. Fury is on track for around $92 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $111 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $203 million.

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, The Book of Life from 20th Century Fox should average a mediocre $5,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.5 million opening three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is somewhat positive: 64% positive so far. The Book of Life is on track for around $76 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $72 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $148 million.

Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, The Best of Me from Relativity should average a similarly mediocre $5,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.0 million opening three-day weekend). No reviews yet for this film. The Best of Me is on track for around $34 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $54 million.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

October 17-19, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Fury Sony PG 79% 30.0 92
The Book of Life Fox R 64% 16.5 76
The Best of Me Rel R n/a 13.0 34
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Gone Girl remains the top holdover, although it will have to cede the top spot overall to Fury.

RETURNING FILMS

October 17-19, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Gone Girl Fox -28% 19.0 152
Alexander and the… Dis -38% 11.4 81
Dracula Untold Uni -52% 11.4 58
The Judge WB -36% 8.4 39
Annabelle WB -50% 7.9 93
The Equalizer Sony -45% 5.4 107
Maze Runner Fox -38% 4.7 100
The Boxtrolls Uni/Foc -41% 3.9 60
Addicted LG/Sum -51% 3.7 16

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $111 million total, ranking 36th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $93 million (while 2012 was $121 million, 2011 was $109 million and 2010 was $120 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very solid $136 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 45% from the same weekend last year, which was abnormally weak.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

10.18.2013

Escape Plan LG/Sum R Sylvester Stallone Arnold Schwarzenegger
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112

Carrie Sony R Chloe Moretz Judy Greer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50

The Fifth Estate Dis R Benedict Cumberbatch Daniel Bruhl
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $3 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5

10.19.2012

Paranormal Activity 4 Par R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $45 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $87

Alex Cross Summit PG13 Tyler Perry Matthew Fox
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.