Articles

December 31, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 1.2-4.2015

Weekend #1 of 2015 is looking like $133 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up +12% from the norm for this weekend and up +4% from the same weekend last year.  

Opening at 2,602 theaters Friday (somewhat below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Woman in Black 2 from Relativity should average a lame $3,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $9.8 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging 33% positive reviews. Woman in Black 2 is on track for around $22 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $65 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $87 million

This would be below the $127.7 million worldwide for The Woman in Black which was released by CBS Films on 2.3.2012 and starred Daniel Radcliffe ($54.3 million domestic total and $73.4 million overseas).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

Jan 2-4, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Woman in Black 2 Rel PG13 33% 9.8 22
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Thankfully for Hollywood, the weekend box office will not rise or fall on the fortunes of one wobbly new release by Relativity.  There are plenty of strong holdovers from the lead-up to Christmas, with three films expected to be over $20 million this weekend and another two close to $15 million.

RETURNING FILMS

Jan 2-4, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies WB -43% 23.5 295
Into the Woods Dis -33% 20.9 150
Unbroken Uni -34% 20.2 145
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb Fox -28% 14.5 120
Annie Sony -28% 11.9 100
Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 LG/Sum -27% 7.3 340
The Imitation Game Weins -13% 6.9 79
The Gambler Par -38% 5.7 45
Big Hero 6 Dis -14% 4.3 215
Wild Fox S -22% 4.2 48

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 29th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $128 million (while 2013 was $124 million, 2012 was $126 million and 2011 was $99 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $133 million, up +12% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +4% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

1.3.2014

Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones Par R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $58

1.4.2013

The Impossible LG/Sum PG13 Naomi Watts Ewan McGregor
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161

Texas Chainsaw 3D LG/Sum R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Promised Land Foc/Uni R Matt Damon John Krasinski
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.