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A few notes: these projections are for original episodes (no repeats) aired in the 4th quarter of 2011. Series premieres will likely be .3-.4 higher, thanks to network marketing pushes, and then tend to go down over time. We’ll be updating the numbers after we see full pilots and also as we get a feel for the networks’ summer promotional campaigns.
ABC. Suburgatory should be just about even with last Fall’s Better With You. Similarly, Happy Endings is pretty much a wash with Cougar Town. Revenge will be significantly better than last Fall’s disastrous The Whole Truth but still last in the time period.
CBS. CSI just about even with last Fall’s Defenders, and somewhat ahead of SVU in the aging franchise battle. For the night, CBS is even with last year thanks to stability from 8-10 pm.
NBC (Updated). The Up All Night/Free Agents combo is only slightly above last Fall’s flop Undercovers, and we don’t see Harry’s Law helping SVU (at least in 18-49s; its less-valuable older audience may raise Total Viewers). SVU‘s rating has been lowered a bit from the original estimate because of Chris Meloni’s departure from the show. If his replacement is fantastic, we might revise the SVU number back upward, but history tells us changes in original casting usually has a negative effect. CSI (already having weathered its lead cast changes) is the main beneficiary of any lost NBC audience in the time period.
FOX. X Factor should be a solid improvement for FOX Wednesday, although I Hate My Teenage Daughter will give back some of those gains. We foresee many two-hour X-Factor episodes after the network is done with baseball.
Overall, not much difference in terms of network placement in the Wednesday nightly averages.
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