THE SKED: TUESDAYS This Fall

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>TUESDAYS this fall officially start the night of September 20, but we get a sneak peak at the night tonight with the early premieres of three shows:  Parenthood on NBC and 90210 and Ringer on The CW.  Click “read more” to see a preview of Tuesday nights, including updated ratings projections for each time period.

We have reduced the ratings estimates for ABC Tuesday this fall, particularly the 8 pm comedy hour featuring Tim Allen’s Last Man Standing (8:00-8:30) and Man Up! (8:30-9:00).  Although the two comedies don’t premiere until mid-October, the promotion for the Last Man anchor has been unusually light — even for a late premiere.  In addition, the show has already taken an extra hiatus week (to fix scripts before shooting the episode in front of a live audience) — never a good sign.  We have also reduced the rating for the Dancing with the Stars results show a touch, as we did on Monday.  CBS ratings estimates remain unchanged, while on NBC we have raised Parenthood‘s projection a tick because of solid and fairly plentiful promotion (for a returning show) in recent programs, including highly-rated NFL regular season football games.  Ratings projections for FOX have been lowered a bit because we just don’t feel as much heat on the night.  Where do all the shaved tenths of ratings points go?  We do not see them landing on other broadcast networks — they will probably scatter to the dozens of significant choices on cable.

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out. 

TUESDAY FALL 2011   Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Last Man Stand 2.7   2.4   10/11
 830 Man Up         2.3   2.1   10/18
 900 Dancing        3.2   3.1
1000 Body of Proof  2.4   2.4   9/20 
CBS
 800 NCIS           3.9   3.9   9/20
 900 NCIS LA        3.5   3.5   9/20
1000 Unforgettable  2.8   2.8   9/20
NBC
 800 Biggest Loser  2.3   2.3   9/20
 900 Biggest Loser  2.7   2.7   9/20
1000 Parenthood     2.2   2.3   9/13
FOX
 800 Glee           4.1   4.0   9/20  
 830 New Girl       2.9   2.8   9/20
 900 Raising Hope   2.7   2.6   9/20
CW
 800 90210          n/a   n/a   9/13
 900 Ringer         n/a   n/a   9/13

 
Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week: