NBC won Election Night with a preliminary 4.6 adult 18-49 rating in primetime. This very Voice-like rating is substantially higher than the 3.2 rating NBC has averaged on Tuesday night the first six weeks of the season.
ABC also did very well relative to its normal Tuesday performance. ABC News averaged a 3.8 from 8-11 pm, way up from the 1.8 it normally receives on Tuesday.
CBS averaged a 2.7 from 8-11 pm, a touch above the 2.6 Tuesday average so far this fall.
Only FOX failed to get a bump. Its simulcast of Fox News Channel coverage scored a 2.0 from 8-11 pm on FOX stations around the country, matching the 2.0 prime average for FOX on Tuesdays this fall.
In aggregate, the 13.1 combined 18-49 rating for the broadcast networks 9.6 is an amazing 36% ahead of a normal Tuesday night. Live sports, elections, competition reality all offer suspense and emotion (manufactured as it may be), compared to the predictability, staleness and moribund nature of most scripted programs.
All hail Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. His statistical model forecast 303 electoral votes for Obama. The final results are unclear because Florida is still counting. If the President holds on to a narrow lead in Florida (very likely), Obama will finish with 332 electoral votes. If Romney pulls out a victory in Florida, he will help Silver nail his forecast of 303 electoral votes for Obama. As for my forecast, admittedly non-scientific, it completely sucked. I am going to stick to box office and TV ratings predictions, for which I actually have robust models.
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ELECTION NIGHT 2012 SCORECARD |
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538.com/ Nate Silver Projection |
Metcalf Forecast |
Actual Results |
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Close |
|
EV |
Obama |
Romney |
Obama |
Romney |
Obama |
Romney |
|
|
7:00 |
Virginia |
13 |
13 |
|
|
13 |
13 |
|
|
|
7:00 |
New Hampshire |
4 |
4 |
|
4 |
|
4 |
|
|
|
7:30 |
North Carolina |
15 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
15 |
|
|
7:30 |
Ohio |
18 |
18 |
|
|
18 |
18 |
|
|
|
8:00 |
Florida |
29 |
|
29 |
|
29 |
? |
? |
|
|
8:00 |
Pennsylvania |
20 |
20 |
|
20 |
|
20 |
|
|
|
8:00 |
Michigan |
16 |
16 |
|
16 |
|
16 |
|
|
|
9:00 |
Colorado |
9 |
9 |
|
|
9 |
9 |
|
|
|
9:00 |
Wisconsin |
10 |
10 |
|
10 |
|
10 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
Iowa |
6 |
6 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
Nevada |
6 |
6 |
|
6 |
|
6 |
|
|
|
|
Safe Obama |
201 |
201 |
— |
201 |
— |
201 |
— |
|
|
|
Safe Romney |
191 |
— |
191 |
— |
191 |
— |
191 |
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TOTAL |
538 |
303 |
235 |
263 |
275 |
332 or 303 |
206 or 235 |
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