THE SKED: MONDAY Ratings Preview

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>The new television season is here.  The kids are back in school, summer is a distant memory, and the Emmy telecast has ended.  It’s time for the networks to unleash a flurry of season premieres and series debuts in the span of a few weeks.  Tonight, ABC and NBC launch their new Monday schedules intact, while CBS premieres everything tonight except for Mike & Molly (whose star Melissa McCarthy just won the Emmy for best female lead in a comedy) which has to wait a week. 

The CW premieres its Monday drama duo next week, while FOX will launch Terra Nova next week and House the following Monday.

We will update the chart below Tuesday morning and get an initial read on winners and losers.

MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating                          May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing        3.7   3.6   9/19
 900 Dancing        4.4   4.2  
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6   9/19
CBS
 800 How I Met      3.3   3.3   9/19
 830 2 Broke Girls  3.0   3.2   9/19
 900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2   9/19
 930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6   9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O  2.7   2.7   9/19
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3   9/19
 900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1   9/19
FOX
 800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5   9/26
 900 House          3.4   3.3   10/3
CW
 800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a   9/26
 900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a   9/26

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out.