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NBC not surprisingly settled down a bit from last week’s post-Super Bowl launch of its new Monday. The Voice continues to set the pace for all the networks on Monday and is now about the same as American Idol‘s typical Wednesday rating — let the battle continue about which signing competition show reigns supreme! However, Smash is still sorting out how many viewers will tune in on a regular basis.
Nightly Primetime Average
Monday NBC CBS ABC FOX
02.13.2012 4.9 3.2 2.3 2.2
02.14.2011 1.6 3.4 2.7 2.7
NBC’s The Voice settled down a bit to a still very good 5.9 rating from 8-10 pm, down from a 6.7 last week. As usual, the singing competition show built solidly by half hour: 5.1… 5.7… 6.3… 6.5. Then 10:00 pm hit and the audience began to scatter. Smash averaged a 3.1 in the first half hour and plummeted again in the 10:30-11:00 half hour to a 2.5. Still, the 2.8 rating for Smash in its second week (compared to a 3.8 premiere rating) is much better than the 1-ish rating for Playboy Club and Rock Center earlier in the season Monday at 10. But keep in mind that Smash is not finished falling.
NBC Mon High Low 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
The Voice 6.7 5.9 6.7 5.9*
Smash 3.8 2.8 3.8 2.8*
The Sing-Off 1.9 1.3 — — — —
Who’s Still St 1.7 1.5 1.6 — 1.7 1.7
Fear Factor 3.5 2.3 2.3 — — 1.5R
Playboy Club 1.6 1.2
Rock Center 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.8
Smash is now in line with our original forecast (posted during the week before the Super Bowl on February 3), while The Voice is way ahead of our bearish forecast. Holding at a 3.0 rating in week 2 would have been an important milestone for Smash since that would have represented a moderate 10% weekly decline from the “core” 3.4 rating identified in last week’s analysis of the minute by minute ratings. But the weekly decline is more like 20% and the within-show bail out witnessed in week two indicates it will continue to decline. A 2.5 next week would be a good sign for the Broadway musical drama. Anything less suggests a 2.0 or less is in its near future as the original forecast claimed.
NBC Monday by Week
ShowBuzzDaily Forecast & Actual Ratings (18-49)
Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4
The Voice
Forecast 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.5
ACTUAL 6.7 5.9
Smash
Forecast 3.3 2.7 2.2 1.9
ACTUAL 3.8 2.8
CBS should have been up from last week given the exceptionally strong Grammy ratings Sunday and the decline in NBC’s numbers from last week. However, the 8-11 pm average last night (3.2) is down a full four tenths of a rating from last Monday’s nightly average. And even more disturbing, the entire line-up is on track to set season lows for each program. Last year on this night: How I Met Your Mother (3.7), Mad Love (3.0), Two and a Half Men (4.2), Mike & Molly (3.8) and Hawaii Five-O (2.8).
CBS Mon High Low 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
How I Met Your 4.9 3.9 2.2R 4.4 2.3R 2.5R 4.0 3.4*
2 Broke Girls 7.1 4.2 2.4R 4.6 2.6R 2.7R 4.3 3.7*
2.5 Men 10.7 4.3 2.3R 4.6 2.9R 3.0R 4.3 3.8*
Mike & Molly 4.8 3.4 2.3R 3.8 2.4R 2.3R 3.4 3.3*
Hawaii Five-O 3.4 2.7 1.6R 2.8 1.6R 1.7R 2.7 2.6*
ABC placed third with a 2.3 rating with a slightly lower Bachelor rating from last week and the same season low rating for Castle. Last year on this night, ABC averaged a 2.7 rating: The Bachelor (2.9) and Castle (2.2).
ABC Mon High Low 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
Dancing Stars 4.0 2.8 — — — — —
You Deserve It 1.7 0.8 — — — — —
The Bachelor 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5*
Castle 3.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.4R 2.0 2.0*
FOX Monday continues to not impress. House drifted down a tenth from last week’s season low, and Alcatraz plunged below a 2 rating, setting yet another season low. Last year on this night, FOX averaged a 2.7 rating with House (3.4) and Chicago Code (2.0).
FOX Mon High Low 01.9 1.16 1.23 1.30 2.06 2.13
