…and now it’s all real. AMERICAN HUSTLE and GRAVITY lead the Academy Award nominations with 10 each, with 12 YEARS A SLAVE right behind at 9, and those three are probably the leading candidates for Best Picture as of this moment. But there’s plenty more to talk about, so here are the marquee categories and some thoughts:
BEST PICTURE
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HER
GRAVITY
NEBRASKA
PHILOMENA
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
I had the 9 nominees nailed, so can’t really claim any “surprises.” Among those films having a bad day: INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS and especially SAVING MR. BANKS, which looked like a sure thing just weeks ago and was clobbered by indifferent reviews and attacks against its interpretation of the Walt Disney/P.L. Travers relationship.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, GRAVITY
Steve McQueen, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Alexander Payne, NEBRASKA
David O. Russell, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Martin Scorsese, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
The story here is the inclusion of Alexander Payne at the expense of Paul Greenglass for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS, which despite its Best Picture nomination came out on the wrong side of the morning. It’s a surprise because Phillips is such a “directed” movie, powered by Greenglass’s aggressive work. But NEBRASKA, apart from being a superb film, also appeals to the older Oscar voters, and there are plenty of those. Any of Cuaron, McQueen or Russell could be a winner in this category.
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Bruce Dern, NEBRASKA
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Matthew McConaughey, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
The category’s shock isn’t that Christian Bale made the cut–the Academy clearly loves AMERICAN HUSTLE–but that Tom Hanks was the actor who fell out. Hanks is Hollywood royalty who was initially expected to have 2 safe nominations this year, Best Actor for CAPTAIN PHILLIPS and Supporting for SAVING MR. BANKS, and neither happened. In the case of this category, it was probably a testament to just how crowded it was this year. On the other hand, it had become increasingly clear that Robert Redford’s grasp on a nomination was tenuous, and the conventional wisdom is that his refusal to campaign for the nomination hurt him greatly (I’d add that while his solo performance was expert, it was emotionally cold in a way that doesn’t appeal to the Academy’s tastes). McConaughey and DiCaprio are probably the favorites, but you can’t count anyone out.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE
Sandra Bullock, GRAVITY
Judi Dench, PHILOMENA
Meryl Streep, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
Again, the Academy really didn’t go for SAVING MR. BANKS in a big way, and here it was Emma Thompson who bore the brunt of it. Blanchett is obviously the big favorite, but Amy Adams shouldn’t be dismissed as a possible upset.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Michael Fassbender, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Jonah Hill, THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
One of the questions going into today’s nominations was how much the Academy would embrace the controversial THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, and its strength is perhaps best shown by the nomination for Jonah Hill, the unlikeliest two-time nominee in recent memory. There was no sentimental posthumous nod for James Gandolfini. Leto appears to be the overwhelming favorite, although Fassbender (who’s said he won’t campaign for the award) could roll in on a 12 YEARS A SLAVE tide.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, BLUE JASMINE
Jennifer Lawrence, AMERICAN HUSTLE
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Julia Roberts, AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY
June Squibb, NEBRASKA
THE BUTLER went nowhere with the Academy, and that extended even to Oprah Winfrey, who was considered its most likely nominee. Her exclusion allowed for Sally Hawkins to make the cut (and perhaps we should all be watching Mia and Ronan Farrow’s Twitter feeds today). Unless NEBRASKA shows surprising strength, this is a two-way battle between Lawrence and Nyong’o.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN HUSTLE
BLUE JASMINE
DALLAS BUYERS CLUB
HER
NEBRASKA
The Coens were excluded and DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, clearly an Academy favorite, made its way in. As the strongest Best Picture contender in this bunch, AMERICAN HUSTLE has to be considered the favorite, but this is where HER or even NEBRASKA could surprise. Worth noting, even though it’s not a surprise, is that GRAVITY didn’t get a Screenplay nomination, which won’t help it in the overall Best Picture race.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 YEARS A SLAVE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
PHILOMENA
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
No surprises here. Although an upset by PHILOMENA or THE WOLF OF WALL STREET is possible, this should be 12 YEARS A SLAVE‘s easiest win of the night, since it doesn’t have to face AMERICAN HUSTLE.
A few other notable nominations (or lack of same):
Pixar’s MONSTERS UNIVERSITY was a startling omission from the Best Animated Film category, one which Pixar has often seemed to own since it began. Instead, the indie animation ERNEST & CELESTINE won the nomination. FROZEN should romp to victory.
It’s not a surprise, really, that Sarah Polley’s very unconventional STORIES WE TELL didn’t get the approval of the Best Documentary branch. It very deliberately sets out to break the “Documentary” rules, and probably paid a price.
Best Foreign Film rarely goes as expected, and the omission of Wong Kar-Wai’s THE GRANDMASTER, one of the highest-profile films on the short list, and backed by both Harvey Weinstein and Martin Scorsese (who signed on as a producer) was this year’s what-the-hell. (THE GRANDMASTER did, however, get deserved nominations for Cinematography and Costume Design.) THE GREAT BEAUTY looks like the favorite here.
John Williams received what I believe was his nine millionth nomination for Best Original Score for THE BOOK THIEF, which was otherwise blanked.
I have to admit needing to look up ALONE YET NOT ALONE, the title of a Best Song nominee and the movie it came from. If it had a commercial run in NY or LA, I don’t remember it.
In the Best Make-Up/Hairstyling categories, nominees include JACKASS PRESENTS BAD GRANDPA and THE LONE RANGER. I’m just sayin.
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