As the movie awards season starts to get going, here’s an early look at how the betting odds are shaping up on the Internet. Lincoln is the clear favorite for Best Picture, with bookmakers offering a little under $2 on a $1 wager. Steven Spielberg is also the favorite for his direction of Lincoln, but he is closely bunched with Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty). Best Director could be one of the best races to watch on Oscar night.
| OSCAR WINNINGS (Payout on $1 Bet) | ||
| BEST PICTURE | Low | High |
| Lincoln | 1.73 | 1.91 |
| Les Miserables | 3.25 | 5 |
| Zero Dark Thirty | 5 | 6 |
| Argo | 7 | 8 |
| Life of Pi | 17 | 21 |
| Silver Linings Playbook | 17 | 26 |
| BEST DIRECTOR | Low | High |
| Steven Spielberg/ Lincoln | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Ben Affleck/ Argo | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Kathryn Bigelow/ Zero Dark Thirty | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Tom Hooper/ Les Miserables | 7 | 9 |
| Ang Lee/ Life of Pi | 11 | 21 |
| David O Russell/ Silver Linings Playbook | 26 | 34 |
| courtesy: oddschecker.com as of 1.3.2013 | ||
There is absolutely no contest in the Best Actor category, according to the odds makers. Give Daniel Day-Lewis the Oscar for his portrayal of the 16th President. In contrast, Tommy Lee Jones (Rep. Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (Lancaster Dodd in The Master) are headed for a duel for Best Supporting Actor, although DeNiro and even Arkin are interesting at the $10+ winning levels.
| BEST ACTOR | Low | High |
| Daniel Day-Lewis/ Lincoln | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Denzel Washington/ Flight | 6 | 10 |
| Hugh Jackman/ Les Miserables | 8 | 11 |
| Joaquin Phoenix/ The Master | 7 | 17 |
| John Hawkes/ The Sessions | 12 | 17 |
| Bradley Cooper/ Silver Linings Playbook | 15 | 26 |
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR | Low | High |
| Philip Seymour Hoffman/ The Master | 2.20 | 2.50 |
| Tommy Lee Jones/ Lincoln | 2.20 | 2.75 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio/ Django Unchained | 5 | 7 |
| Robert DeNiro/ Silver Linings Playbook | 9 | 11 |
| Alan Arkin/ Argo | 10 | 17 |
| Russell Crowe/ Les Miserables | 9 | 21 |
In the Actress categories, Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) has the edge for Best Actress, although Jessica Chastain is very close behind. In the Best Supporting Actress category (the award that often leads to anonymity and the end of a career), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) is virtually guaranteed to win (with the lowest payout of any of the major categories).
| BEST ACTRESS | Low | High |
| Jennifer Lawrence/ Silver Linings Playbook | 1.40 | 1.57 |
| Jessica Chastain/ Zero Dark Thirty | 2.75 | 3.25 |
| Sally Field/ Lincoln | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Emannuelle Riva/ Amour | 9 | 17 |
| Quvenzhane Wallis/ Beasts of the Southern Wild | 13 | 26 |
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS | Low | High |
| Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| Helen Hunt/ The Sessions | 9 | 10 |
| Sally Field/ Lincoln | 9 | 10 |
| Amy Adams/ The Master | 11 | 17 |
| Nicole Kidman/ The Paperboy | 26 | 26 |
| Jacki Weaver/ Silver Linings Playbook | 34 | 34 |
As the guild nominations roll out, we will update the odds and highlight the key movements up and down the charts.
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