Articles

January 1, 2017
 

New Year’s Eve Box Office Update

  • SumoMe

 

As was the case last Sunday, the weekend holiday has meant that estimates for New Year’s Day (which are all over the place, from 5% down to 40% up) are no more than speculative, and there are only fragmentary international numbers.  Here’s where things stand currently:

 

ROGUE ONE (Lucasfilm/Disney) is reporting holiday numbers that fit into the pattern of 2011 (the last time New Year’s fell on a Sunday), with a 20% Saturday drop (to $14.5M) and 15% Sunday recovery.  If these numbers hold and Monday drops a further 15%, it will be around $438M at the end of the holidays, 42% below where Force Awakens was at this point on its run, suggesting a $540-550M US total.  However, we don’t have up-to-date international figures for the weekend, and the film has yet to open in China.

SING (Illumination/Universal) is also estimating numbers in line with the family movie results in 2011, with a 27% Saturday drop (to $12.2M) and a further 5% drop on Sunday, but then a moderate rise on Monday, putting it at $178M at the end of the holidays and on track for $250M in the US.  It’s also at $97.8M overseas after a $24.3M weekend in 56 markets, with some major territories (including China and the UK) still to open.

PASSENGERS (Village Roadshow/LStar/Columbia/Sony) dropped 18% on Saturday (to $4.6M) and is forecasting a 10% Sunday increase.  It should be at around $65M by Monday, and at this point will be looking overseas to be bailed out of its expensive production/marketing costs.

MOANA (Disney Animation), like Sing, will follow a 25% Saturday drop (to $3M) with a further 5% Sunday hit, and will then recover moderately on Monday for a $212M total, heading for $235M in the US.

FENCES (Bron/Paramount), a bit surprisingly, is forecasting a 8% Sunday drop to follow its 6% Saturday fall (to $3.2M) and then a steady Monday.  We’ll see if those numbers hold, but if they do, the film should be at a sturdy $33M by Monday, with a good chance of going over $50M in the US.

WHY HIM (20th) is forecasting a very strong Sunday, following a 21% Saturday drop (to $2.7M) with a 30% increase.  Again, we’ll see if that holds true, but it could total $37M by Monday and hope to reach $55M in the US.  Overseas, it earned $10.1M from 41 territories this weekend for a mild $14.3M total to date.

LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate) had a terrific Saturday, holding steady from Friday (at $3.1M) and is hoping to do the same on Sunday.  With a 15% Monday drop, it could be at $37M by the end of the holiday, and is still at only 750 theatres with almost certain Golden Globe wins in the Comedy/Musical categories to follow next weekend.

ASSASSIN’S CREED (Regency/20th) fell 27% on Saturday (to $2.2M) and is hoping for a 20% Sunday bounce, getting it to $41M by Monday.  Its fate rests overseas, where it’s at a dim $44.1M after a $22M weekend in 49 markets.

MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Amazon/Roadside) fared even better than La La Land on Saturday, actually rising 5% (to $1.4M), and projecting a mild Sunday drop.  It could be close to $30M by Monday, and is still at a moderate 1204 theatres, with the meat of awards season ahead.

COLLATERAL BEAUTY (Village Roadshow/RatPac/New Line/Warners) fell 9% on Saturday (to $1.3M) and is forecasting a 10% Sunday increase.  It may reach $27M by Monday, and will never get out of red ink considering that its overseas total is a sickly $19.9M after a $4.6M weekend in 39 markets.

The holiday limited releases are again led by the 25-theatre run of HIDDEN FIGURES (20th), which is headed for a sturdy $32K 3-day per-theatre average before going wide next weekend.  20TH CENTURY WOMEN (A24) is off to a good start with a $29K average at 4 (although it will only hit that number if it has the 40% Sunday bump it’s projecting).  PATRIOTS DAY (CBS/Lionsgate) is also looking for a big Sunday with a 35% bump, which would get it to a $19K 3-day average at 7.  SILENCE (Paramount), JULIETA (Sony Classics) and LIVE BY NIGHT (Warners) are similarly counting on 35% Sunday bumps, to allow them to reach respective weekend averages of $19K, $8K and $8K, all at 4 theatres.  A MONSTER CALLS (Focus/Universal) is estimating a $5K weekend average at 4.  PATERSON (Bleecker Street) didn’t issue daily numbers, but is forecasting a $17K weekend average at 4.



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."