As was the case last Sunday, the weekend holiday has meant that estimates for New Year’s Day (which are all over the place, from 5% down to 40% up) are no more than speculative, and there are only fragmentary international numbers. Here’s where things stand currently:
ROGUE ONE (Lucasfilm/Disney) is reporting holiday numbers that fit into the pattern of 2011 (the last time New Year’s fell on a Sunday), with a 20% Saturday drop (to $14.5M) and 15% Sunday recovery. If these numbers hold and Monday drops a further 15%, it will be around $438M at the end of the holidays, 42% below where Force Awakens was at this point on its run, suggesting a $540-550M US total. However, we don’t have up-to-date international figures for the weekend, and the film has yet to open in China.
SING (Illumination/Universal) is also estimating numbers in line with the family movie results in 2011, with a 27% Saturday drop (to $12.2M) and a further 5% drop on Sunday, but then a moderate rise on Monday, putting it at $178M at the end of the holidays and on track for $250M in the US. It’s also at $97.8M overseas after a $24.3M weekend in 56 markets, with some major territories (including China and the UK) still to open.
PASSENGERS (Village Roadshow/LStar/Columbia/Sony) dropped 18% on Saturday (to $4.6M) and is forecasting a 10% Sunday increase. It should be at around $65M by Monday, and at this point will be looking overseas to be bailed out of its expensive production/marketing costs.
MOANA (Disney Animation), like Sing, will follow a 25% Saturday drop (to $3M) with a further 5% Sunday hit, and will then recover moderately on Monday for a $212M total, heading for $235M in the US.
FENCES (Bron/Paramount), a bit surprisingly, is forecasting a 8% Sunday drop to follow its 6% Saturday fall (to $3.2M) and then a steady Monday. We’ll see if those numbers hold, but if they do, the film should be at a sturdy $33M by Monday, with a good chance of going over $50M in the US.
WHY HIM (20th) is forecasting a very strong Sunday, following a 21% Saturday drop (to $2.7M) with a 30% increase. Again, we’ll see if that holds true, but it could total $37M by Monday and hope to reach $55M in the US. Overseas, it earned $10.1M from 41 territories this weekend for a mild $14.3M total to date.
LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate) had a terrific Saturday, holding steady from Friday (at $3.1M) and is hoping to do the same on Sunday. With a 15% Monday drop, it could be at $37M by the end of the holiday, and is still at only 750 theatres with almost certain Golden Globe wins in the Comedy/Musical categories to follow next weekend.
ASSASSIN’S CREED (Regency/20th) fell 27% on Saturday (to $2.2M) and is hoping for a 20% Sunday bounce, getting it to $41M by Monday. Its fate rests overseas, where it’s at a dim $44.1M after a $22M weekend in 49 markets.
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Amazon/Roadside) fared even better than La La Land on Saturday, actually rising 5% (to $1.4M), and projecting a mild Sunday drop. It could be close to $30M by Monday, and is still at a moderate 1204 theatres, with the meat of awards season ahead.
COLLATERAL BEAUTY (Village Roadshow/RatPac/New Line/Warners) fell 9% on Saturday (to $1.3M) and is forecasting a 10% Sunday increase. It may reach $27M by Monday, and will never get out of red ink considering that its overseas total is a sickly $19.9M after a $4.6M weekend in 39 markets.
The holiday limited releases are again led by the 25-theatre run of HIDDEN FIGURES (20th), which is headed for a sturdy $32K 3-day per-theatre average before going wide next weekend. 20TH CENTURY WOMEN (A24) is off to a good start with a $29K average at 4 (although it will only hit that number if it has the 40% Sunday bump it’s projecting). PATRIOTS DAY (CBS/Lionsgate) is also looking for a big Sunday with a 35% bump, which would get it to a $19K 3-day average at 7. SILENCE (Paramount), JULIETA (Sony Classics) and LIVE BY NIGHT (Warners) are similarly counting on 35% Sunday bumps, to allow them to reach respective weekend averages of $19K, $8K and $8K, all at 4 theatres. A MONSTER CALLS (Focus/Universal) is estimating a $5K weekend average at 4. PATERSON (Bleecker Street) didn’t issue daily numbers, but is forecasting a $17K weekend average at 4.