Friday’s $52.1 million for the top 10 films is very close to the pace for the same day in 2007 (when December 28 was also a Friday).
In fact, over the past three days, 2012 is performing almost identically to 2007. The big differences between the two years are last weekend (December 21-23), which was pretty much a disaster, and a strong Christmas Day. In fact, this year’s December 25 made it seem possible that 2012 could make up some lost ground, but now it is clear that the day was an aberration.
Thirteen days into the three-week holiday movie season, 2012 is now 6.2% behind the average for the same period over the last several years ($414 million this year versus $442 million on average 2004-2011) and 11.0% behind 2007’s $465 million over this period.
| Holiday Season — First 13 Days | |||
| Top 10 Films by Day — $ millions | |||
| 2012 | 2007 | 2004-2011 average | |
| Dec 16 | 31.5 | 37.8 | 22.1 |
| Dec 17 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 27.2 |
| Dec 18 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 28.0 |
| Dec 19 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 23.3 |
| Dec 20 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 21.0 |
| Dec 21 | 27.8 | 50.1 | 25.4 |
| Dec 22 | 37.3 | 53.3 | 30.1 |
| Dec 23 | 32.0 | 44.9 | 35.6 |
| Dec 24 | 17.8 | 22.6 | 20.5 |
| Dec 25 | 68.1 | 57.4 | 56.6 |
| Dec 26 | 51.9 | 50.4 | 59.3 |
| Dec 27 | 45.8 | 45.6 | 48.5 |
| Dec 28 | 52.1 | 53.5 | 44.2 |
| Dec 16-28 | 414 | 465 | 442 |
In addition to the 2007 comparison, the other important yardstick for yesterday are other years when December 28 fell on a weekend. Again, a very typical day yesterday.
| December 28: Top 10 Films ($ millions) | |||||||
| Dec 28 on Weekdays | Dec 28 on Weekends | ||||||
| Top10 | #1 film | Top10 | #1 film | ||||
| 2011 | Wed | 41.6 | Mission Impossible 4 | 2012 | Fri | 52.1 | The Hobbit |
| 2010 | Tue | 41.6 | Little Fockers | 2008 | Sun | 46.0 | Marley & Me |
| 2009 | Mon | 58.3 | Avatar | 2007 | Fri | 53.5 | Natl Treasure Book of |
| 2006 | Thu | 40.0 | Night at the Museum | 2003 | Sun | 45.1 | Return of the King |
| 2005 | Wed | 37.9 | Chronicles of Narnia | 2002 | Sat | 54.0 | Two Towers |
| 2004 | Tue | 34.8 | Meet the Fockers | ||||
The rest of the holiday season should track fairly closely to 2007 and to similar years (comparing December 29-30 and January 4-5 to to other years with those days on weekends, and comparing December 31-January 3 to years when those days fell on weekdays). Any under-performance in 2012 versus these comparisons can be blamed on Les Miserables, which is rapidly losing steam after first appearing as a potential superstar of the season. If our forecast for December 29-January 5 holds, the holiday season will end with about $704 million — actually very close to last year’s $706 million and only somewhat below the average $717 million over the last decade. Not a disaster but somewhat underwhelming.
| Holiday Season — The Rest of the Way | |||
| Top 10 Films by Day — $ millions | |||
| 2012 | 2007 | Similar Day average 2004-2011 | |
| Dec 29 | Sat | 56.4 | 52.4 |
| Dec 30 | Sun | 48.0 | 48.6 |
| Dec 31 | Mon | 33.9 | 38.0 |
| Jan 1 | Tue | 41.2 | 44.1 |
| Jan 2 | Wed | 22.1 | 29.5 |
| Jan 3 | Thu | 19.2 | 15.0 |
| Jan 4 | Fri | 37.0 | 32.3 |
| Jan 5 | Sat | 47.9 | 39.2 |
| Dec 29-Jan 5 | est-290 | 306 | 299 |
| * The Similar Day average contains years with only weekdays or only weekends for each day, depending on 2012’s calendar. For example, Dec 29’s average contains only 2006 and 2007 (when that day also fell on a weekend). | |||
About the Author
