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December 28, 2012
 

Holiday Movie Season: Dec 27 Update

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Twelve days into the three-week holiday movie season, 2012 is now 9.0% behind the average for the same period over the last several years ($362 million this year versus $398 million on average 2004-2011).  Further, 2012 is 12.1% behind the last time Christmas fell on a Tuesday (2007’s $412 million over this period).   After a dizzying drop on December 26 (down -24% from Christmas Day), December 27 behaved more normally (very similar to the box office performance in 2007, when the 27th also fell on Thursday).

Holiday Season — First 12 Days
Top 10 Films by Day — $ millions
2012 2007 2004-2011 average
Dec 16 31.5 37.8 22.1
Dec 17 11.9 12.8 27.2
Dec 18 13.2 11.9 28.0
Dec 19 11.9 11.9 23.3
Dec 20 12.8 13.1 21.0
Dec 21 27.8 50.1 25.4
Dec 22 37.3 53.3 30.1
Dec 23 32.0 44.9 35.6
Dec 24 17.8 22.6 20.5
Dec 25 68.1 57.4 56.6
Dec 26 51.9 50.4 59.3
Dec 27 45.8 45.6 48.5
Dec 16-27 362 412 398

 

And looking only at years when December 27 is on a weekday, the $45.8 million this year on that date compares very well to the past decade.  So overall box office volume was solid yesterday.  But there are some worrisome signs when we look at the individual performance of the big Christmas openers.  Les Miserables dropped another -25% (from $12.2 million on the 26th to $9.2 million on the 27th) and allowed The Hobbit to move into the top spot in the daily ranking chart.  Django Unchained remained in third place but dropped -17% (from $10.0 million on the 26th to $8.3 million yesterday).  The Hobbit fell a relatively modest -11%, the only film to turn in over $10 million yesterday ($10.1 million).  The other holdovers dropped modestly (Jack Reacher -7%, This Is 40 -5% and Lincoln -2%), matching the minor -4% drop for Parental Guidance.

December 27: Top 10 Films ($ millions)
Dec 27 on Weekdays Dec 27 on Weekends
Top10 #1 film Top10 #1 film
2012 Thu 45.8 The Hobbit 2009 Sun 75.9 Avatar
2011 Tue 45.6 Mission Impossible 4 2008 Sat 60.5 Marley & Me
2010 Mon 41.6 Little Fockers 2003 Sat 56.1 Return of the King
2007 Thu 45.6 National Treasure 2002 Fri 50.8 Two Towers
2006 Wed 42.0 Night at Museum
2005 Tue 40.1 Chronicles of Narnia
2004 Mon 36.9 Meet the Fockers

 

If Les Miserables and Django Unchained continue to free-fall we could start to see serious erosion in the overall box office.  Fasten your seatbelts for a very interesting weekend ahead.

Holiday Season: Top 10 Films by Day
$ millions — Average 2004-2011
Dec 16 22.1 Dec 23 35.6 Dec 30 45.4
Dec 17 27.2 Dec 24 20.5 Dec 31 37.9
Dec 18 28.0 Dec 25 56.6 Jan 1 50.1
Dec 19 23.3 Dec 26 59.3 Jan 2 39.7
Dec 20 21.0 Dec 27 48.5 Jan 3 22.9
Dec 21 25.4 Dec 28 44.2 Jan 4 17.3
Dec 22 30.1 Dec 29 43.9 Jan 5 17.9

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.