Holiday Movie Season: Daily Box Office Track

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The three weeks around Christmas (December 16-January 5) and especially the nine days including both the Christmas and New Year’s Day holiday (December 25-January 2) represent an enormous box office opportunity each year.  Over the last eight years, the December 16-January 5 period has averaged $717 million for the top 10 films, while the heart of that period, December 25-January 2, has averaged $426 million — for a robust $47 million per day.

The record December 16-January 5 period came in 2009, a cool $981 million in the Avatar-dominated holiday season.  The record December 25-January 2 was also in 2009, $635 million.   But in most years, there is a reliable $700+ million in the three-week period and $375+ million in the shorter period.

The chart below summarizes the 21 days around Christmas, with December 26 coming in as the biggest day of the season ($59.3 million) — followed closely by Christmas Day itself ($56.6 million).  New Year’s Day is next with $50.1 million on average.  However, note that December 27-December 31 and January 2 are all over or very close to $40 million per day.

How is this year shaping up?  As we have seen this weekend, Jack Reacher, This Is 40 and The Guilt Trip do not feel like big Christmas movies, and the audience seems to agree by staying at home or in the stores.  Over the last nine days (December 16-23), the top 10 films have grossed $179 million,  24% off the pace of 2007 (the best comparison as it shares the same calendar configuration with December 23 on a Sunday) and 16% below the multi-year average going back to 2004.  The first five days of this period (December 16-20) looked almost identical to 2007 each day, but the weekend December 21-23 this year went completely off the rails, down 34% from 2007.  The December 21-23 comparison to the 2004-2011 average looks very close, but remember that the multi-year averages for those days include some years with very high weekend days and fairly low weekdays.

Starting with Christmas Day, however, the differences between weekdays and weekend days become very small.  December 28, for example, is usually over $40 million whether it is a mid-week day or a weekend day.  It is now up to Django Unchained and Les Miserables (and Parental Guidance, in some dream world) to turn things around and spark some interest in the holiday box office.  Those films have a shot at eight or nine Friday/Saturdays in a row, but if they stumble, too, this could be one tough end to 2012.