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The past week is up an amazing 57% from last year, and the year-to-date tally is now down 15% from last year (improving from down 17% last week). This is very positive news for the industry, and especially Universal with its successful launch of Fast Five.
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between April 25 and May 1 grossed $191 million, up an incredible 57% from the same week in 2010. Year to date, all films are now down 3% from the comparable four-year average and now down 15% from 2010’s box office numbers (both year-to-date comparison percentages improved from last week). The positive momentum continues.
All Films April 25-May 1
(millions) 4yr vs vs
2010 Avg 2011 2010 Avg
Week #17 $121 $171 $191 +57% +12%
Year to Date $3437 $3035 $2930
-15% – 3%Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now: Fast Five ($188 million, 93rd percentile of all wide release movies the past two years), Rio ($150 million, 90th percentile of all wide release movies), and Hop ($113 million, 83rd percentile). The other new releases this weekend look like: Prom ($12 million, 12th percentile) and Hoodwinked Too! ($6 million, 4th percentile), an absolute disaster for Weinstein.
The complete list of Total Domestic estimates can be found below.
Weekend Actuals vs Yesterday’s Studio Projections
Universal actually underestimated the Sunday performance of Fast Five (a rare event for a studio) — the actual weekend performance came in almost $3 million higher. This is a very good sign for the film, as word of mouth seems to be building even more than its own studio was estimating.
The official weekend rankings follow in the table below.
Weekend of Sunday Monday Showbuzz
April 29-May 1, 2011 Studio Weekend Domestic
(millions) Estimate Actual Total
Fast Five (Uni) $83.6 $86.2 $188
Rio (Fox) $14.4 $14.8 $150
Madea’s Big Happy Fam.(LG) $10.1 $ 9.9 $ 61
Water for Elephants (Fox) $ 9.1 $ 9.3 $ 57
Prom (Dis) $ 5.0 $ 4.7 $ 12
Hoodwinked Too! (Weins) $ 4.1 $ 4.1 $ 6
Hop (Uni) $ 2.6 $ 2.7 $113
African Cats (Dis) $ 2.3 $ 2.4 $ 19
Note: The table above displays the weekend Studio Estimate (released Sunday), the Weekend Actual number (issued today), and the updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total estimate. For definitions of all terms visit Showbuzz Basics.
Limited Release Openings
In limited release, Cave of Forgotten Dreams opened at five theaters with a very good $25,400 per location, while 13 Assassins opened at three theaters with $15,285 per theater. The other limited release openers had quiet debuts. Sympathy for Delicious had an average opening ($4,724) at two theaters. Lebanon, PA opened at two theaters with a soft $3,338 average per theater, while Exporting Raymond opened at 13 theaters with a similar $2,769 per theater average.
The Calender: The Next Four Weeks
2011 2010
Something Borrowed Babies
May 13 May 14
Just Wright
May 20 May 21
Pirates of the Caribbean: Shrek Forever After
On Stranger Tides MacGruber
May 27 May 28
Kung Fu Panda 2 Sex and the City 2
The Hangover Part II Prince of Persia
The chart below shows how the May 2010 releases fared worldwide. At the high end, May films can deliver $800 million to $1 billion in worldwide gross. The second tier grosses around $300-400 million, and the bottom tier (almost half the releases) take in $100 million or less.
Check back tomorrow for updated international numbers for current movies in release, including a new graphic display of the domestic, international and home video revenues.
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