Now 21 full weeks into 2012, year-to-date domestic box office is running 15% ahead of last year’s pace. Just two weeks ago, box office was running 21% ahead of 2011. The past week was off a stunning 32% from the same week last year when The Hangover Part II grossed $118 million (Thursday-Sunday, May 26-29), Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides grossed $63 million (Monday-Sunday, May 23-29), Kung Fu Panda 2 grossed $53 million (Thursday-Sunday, May 26-29) and Bridesmaids grossed $26 million (Monday-Sunday, May 23-29). In contrast, this past week the top four films were not even close: Marvel’s The Avengers grossed $56 million (Monday-Sunday, May 21-27), MIB3 grossed $55 million (Friday-Sunday, May 25-27), Battleship grossed $19 million (Monday-Sunday, May 21-27) and The Dictator grossed just under $17 million (Monday-Sunday, May 21-27).
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between May 21 and May 27 grossed $205 million, down 32% from the same week in 2011 and down 17% from the four-year average for the comparable week. Year to date, 2012 is now running 15% ahead of 2011 (down from +21% just two weeks ago) and 13% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years (down from +17% two weeks ago).
| Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through May 27, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| 2011 | 4-year Average | 2012 | vs 2011 | vs 4yr Avg | ||
| Week #21 | $300 | $247 | $205 | -32% | -17% | |
| Year to Date | $3,474 | $3,541 | $3,991 | +15% | +13% | |
Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates
The studio estimates were mostly accurate this weekend. Men in Black 3 opened with $54.593 million for the Friday-Sunday weekend in the actual tallies, 0.7% below the $55.000 million estimate issued Sunday morning (based on Friday and Saturday’s actual numbers). Marvel’s The Avengers came in with $36.687 million in its fourth weekend, 0.8% below the $36.987 million studio estimate, while Battleship was 2.3% above ($11.050 million actual versus $10.800 million studio estimate).
Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.
| Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Finals | Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) | percentile | |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | 611 | 99 | |
| Men in Black 3 | 154 | 89 | |
| Think Like a Man | 94 | 76 | |
| Dark Shadows | 79 | 71 | |
| Battleship | 68 | 67 | |
| The Dictator | 66 | 65 | |
| The Lucky One | 61 | 62 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | 39 | 46 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | 38 | 45 | |
| Pirates! Band of Misfits | 30 | 34 | |
| Chimpanzee | 26 | 30 | |
| Safe | 15 | 14 | |
| Chernobyl Diaries | 14 | 12 | |
| The Raven | 14 | 10 |
Weekend Predictions for June 1-3 should be posted late Wednesday. This weekend features the debut of Snow White and the Huntsman.
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