The domestic box office was back down this week. Volatility has been the operative word recently. The first two weeks of May (April 30-May 13) were up more than 35% each from prior years, followed by the next three weeks (May 14-June 3) which were down around 15% each week. Then last week was up 11%, but the toxic combination of Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy reversed the momentum. It seems this is the summer of highly selective moviegoers. A few more grand slams are to be had, but the strikeout rate for the studios is rising.
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between June 11 and June 17 grossed $195 million, down 5% from the same week in 2011 and down a more disturbing 15% from the four-year average for the comparable week. Year to date (now $4.6 billion for wide-release films) is now 12% ahead of 2011 (down from 13% last week) and 10% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the year-to-date period (down from +11% last week).
| Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through June 17, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| 2011 | 4-year Average | 2012 | vs 2011 | vs 4yr Avg | ||
| Week #24 | $206 | $228 | $195 | -5% | -15% | |
| Year to Date | $4,134 | $4,212 | $4,623 | +12% | +10% | |
Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates
The studio estimate for Rock of Ages turned out to be very optimistic, while That’s My Boy actually came in above the Sony forecast Sunday. Rock of Ages actually grossed $14.437 million Friday-Sunday, 4.1% below the $15.06 million weekend estimate issued by Warner Brothers Sunday morning. In contrast, the actual opening for That’s My Boy ($13.454 million) was 3.5% above the $13.0 million estimate.
Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.
| Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Finals | Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) | percentile | |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | 609 | 99 | |
| Madagascar 3 | 209 | 94 | |
| Men in Black 3 | 183 | 92 | |
| Snow White and the Huntsman |
154 | 89 | |
| Prometheus | 136 | 86 | |
| Dark Shadows | 77 | 70 | |
| Battleship | 64 | 65 | |
| The Dictator | 62 | 62 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | 42 | 49 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | 42 | 48 | |
| Rock of Ages | 42 | 48 | |
| That’s My Boy | 36 | 43 |
Weekend Predictions for June 22-24 should be posted late Wednesday. This weekend features the debuts of Brave and Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter.
Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.
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