November 22, 2014

FRIDAY 11.21.2014 Box Office Report

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #47 of 2014 looks like $194 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up a small 4% the norm for this weekend ($186 million) but down a significant -11% from the same weekend last year.

Opening at 4,151 theaters, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $56.5 million late Thursday and Friday and is on track for a $131.5 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $156.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast and well below the $158.1 million for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire on this weekend last year). The film is pacing toward $31,800 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is only somewhat positive (68% positive overall and 65% positive with top critics). Mockingjay Part 1 is headed for $380 million total domestic (which would be below the $424.7 million domestic for Catching Fire and even below the $408.0 million domestic for the first Hunger Games).

Weekend 47: November 21-23, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 LG/Sum [156.0] 131.5 56.5 380
Big Hero 6 Dis [21.0] 19.4 4.5 186
Interstellar Par [16.1] 14.5 4.3 164
Dumb and Dumber To Uni [16.6] 13.8 4.3 85
Gone Girl Fox [2.8] 2.7 .80 166
Beyond the Lights Rel [3.2] 2.6 .79 18
St. Vincent Weins [2.4] 2.2 .65 43
Fury Sony [2.2] 1.8 .54 85
Birdman FoxS [1.8] 1.8 .51 23
Theory of Everything Foc/Uni [—] 1.4 .40 n/a
Nightcrawler Open R [—] 1.1 .35 31
Ouija Uni [1.6] .93 .31 51

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Big Hero 6 is headed for $19.4 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend and somewhat below our $21.0 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Big Hero 6 has been adjusted to $186 million.

Interstellar is headed for $14.5 million this weekend (down 49% from last weekend and somewhat below our $16.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Interstellar has been adjusted to $164 million.

Dumb and Dumber To is headed for $13.8 million this weekend (down 62% from last weekend and below our $16.6 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dumb and Dumber To has been adjusted to $85 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $194 million total Friday-Sunday, up 4% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 11% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 47 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $194 Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 $132.0
2013 $218 Hunger Games Catching Fire $158.1, Delivery Man $7.9
2012 $200 Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 $141.1, Lincoln $21.0
2011 $155 Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 $138.1, Happy Feet Two $21.2
2010 $171 Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125.0, Next Three Days $6.5
Avg 2010-13 $186

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.