UPDATE: We have revised the numbers for Marvel’s The Avengers to reflect Disney’s outlook for the film based on Friday’s opening, which puts the film on track for the biggest opening weekend of all time.
The 18th weekend of 2012 is looking like an outstanding $228 million for the Top 12 films, up 47% from this weekend last year and up 56% from the four-year average for the same weekend. Marvel’s The Avengers is currently on track for a $185 million opening weekend, blowing past our $165 million forecast and the $169 million opening weekend record.
Marvel’s The Avengers from Disney opened with a revised $80.5 million Friday (including almost $19 million from the midnight shows Thursday night) and is headed for an estimated $185 million opening weekend, exceeding the $165 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast and on track for the highest opening of all time (see chart below). The well-reviewed 3D union of a variety of Marvel comic book heroes should average a revised $42,500 at 4,349 theaters. The Avengers is headed for a preliminary $480 million in North America. Read Mitch Salem’s review of this kickoff to the summer movie season here.
Also, be sure to check out our second annual Summer Movie Draft for a fun look at the big movies ahead the reast of the season.
Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Harry Potter and the $169.2 $381.1 $947.1
Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Dark Knight $158.4 $533.3 $468.6
The Hunger Games $152.5 $405-est. $228.5-to date
Spider-Man 3 $151.1 $336.5 $554.3
Not surprisingly, this weekend was all about The Avengers, which should account for over 80% of wide-release box office Friday-Sunday. Think Like a Man (down 53% in its third weekend) has been downgraded slightly to $95 million in our ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
The Avengers (Dis) [$165 ] $185 $80.5 $480
Think Like a Man (Sony) [$ 9.0] $ 8.3 $ 2.7 $ 95-
The Hunger Games (LG) [$ 6.3] $ 5.9 $ 1.6 $405
Pirates! Band of (Sony) [$ 6.5] $ 5.7 $ 1.3 $ 35
The Lucky One (WB) [$ 5.4] $ 5.6 $ 1.9 $ 59
Five-Year Engagement Uni [$ 5.7] $ 5.5 $ 1.7 $ 34
Safe (LG) [$ 3.5] $ 2.7 $ 0.8 $ 18
The Raven (Rel) [$ 3.0] $ 2.6 $ 0.8 $ 14
Chimpanzee (Dis) [$ 2.8] $ 2.3 $ 0.7 $ 29
Three Stooges (Fox) [$ 2.5] $ 1.9 $ 0.5 $ 44
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $228 million total Friday-Sunday, now up 47% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 56% from the average for this weekend the past four years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #18
2012 $228 Marvel’s The Avengers $185
2011 $155 Thor $66, Jumping Broom $15, Something Borrowed $14
2010 $171 Iron Man 2 $128, Babies $2
2009 $143 Star Trek $75, Next Day Air $4
2008 $118 What Happens in Vegas $20, Speed Racer $19
2008-11
Avg $147
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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