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May 14, 2011
 

FRIDAY MAY 13 BOX OFFICE RESULTS: Bridesmaids Above Forecast But Weekend Is Down

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Thor remains at #1, while Bridesmaids opens above and Priest opens below expectations.  Fast Five sneaks into third place.  The weekend looks to be down 14% versus last year.

Bridesmaids should open with $21.5 million this weekend and is on a pace to finish with $82 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  Priest will open with $13.7 million and is headed for $29 million domestically. 

Thor should be down 54% this weekend to $30 million and is now on track for $188 million.  In its third weekend, Fast Five should collect another $18 million and is now on pace for $208 million domestic.  

On a per theater basis for the wide release openers, Bridesmaids will average a good $7,400 at 2,918 theaters.  Priest should average $4,800 at 2,864 theaters (right around the $4,900 average for all films opening the last two years).   

May 13-15, 2011         Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Thor (Par)               [$32.5]    $30     $ 9.1     $188
Bridesmaids (Uni)        [$19.5]    $21.5   $ 7.8     $ 85
Fast Five (Uni)          [$16.5]    $18     $ 5.9     $208
Priest (Sony)            [$17  ]    $13.7   $ 5.6     $ 29
Something Borrowed (WB)  [$ 8  ]    $ 7     $ 2.3     $ 38
Jumping the Broom (Sony) [$ 9  ]    $ 6.5   $ 2.0     $ 40
Rio (Fox)                [$ 5.5]    $ 6.5   $ 1.6     $142
Water for Elephants (Fox)[$ 3.5]    $ 3.7   $ 1.2     $ 57
Madea’s Big Happy Family [$ 2  ]    $ 2.0   $ 0.6     $ 53
Soul Surfer (Sony)       [$ 1.5]    $ 1.6   $ 0.5     $ 43

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film’s ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total, down 14% from the same weekend last year. 


Top 12 Films: Weekend #19
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $113  (
-20% vs 2007-10 average; -14% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $140 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $131  Robin Hood $36, Letters to Juliet $13, Just Wright $8

2009  $131  Angels & Demons $46
2008  $126  Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $55
2007  $174  Shrek the Third $122

Next Weekend

Opening next week is the period comedy Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides from Disney (the fourth in the series).  This blockbuster will be compared against Shrek Forever After‘s $71 million opening weekend on 5.21-23.2010….and don’t forget the ill-fated MacGruber with $4 million the same weekend.  Next weekend will be a good opportunity for 2011 to get back on track with an up weekend.

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers. 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.