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The tenth weekend of 2012 is looking to be solid in terms of total business but not at the runaway pace of the past few weeks. The weekend is running 3% ahead of last year’s same weekend and 8% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend. The Lorax will remain the #1 film this weekend, down a typical 45% from its strong opening. Needing an outstanding performance, John Carter is looking like a $27 million opening weekend, which would would be fine if the studio hadn’t spent hundreds of millions of dollars making it, re-shooting it and marketing it worldwide. Silent House and A Thousand Words with Eddie Murphy are opening very quietly, and will leave the scene quickly.
John Carter from Disney opened with $9.6 million Friday for an estimated $27.4 million for Friday-Sunday, in line with the $26.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. The science-fiction/ action film is averaging $7,300 on 3,746 screens, nowhere near the opening this expensive film would need to have even a remote shot at making its money back. The film now has 50% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and a “B+” CinemaScore grade from opening night audiences. Mitch Salem is decidedly negative in his review. Not the signs of terrific word of mouth. John Carter is headed for a preliminary $67 million total domestic, which will certainly feed the Town’s schadenfreude for the current Disney film regime.
Silent House (from Open Road Films) opened with $2.6 million Friday for $6.6 million Friday-Sunday, falling far behind the modest $10.0 million ShowBuzzDaily prediction. The horror film should average around only $3,100 at 2,124 theaters this weekend. Silent House is headed for a preliminary $12 million domestic. Currently 49% positive reviews for Silent House at RottenTomatoes, but the film received the dreaded “F” CinemaScore, according to Deadline. Read Mitch Salem’s review.
Finally, there’s Eddie Murphy. A Thousand Words (Paramount) opened with $1.9 million Friday and headed for $5.7 million this weekend, somewhat above our horrific $4.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. Firmly in bomb territory, the film is averaging $3,030 at only 1,890 theaters. The film is headed for maybe $9 million domestic when it leaves theaters.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
March 9-11, 2012 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
The Lorax (Uni) [$41.0] $39.2 $ 9.5 $220
John Carter (Dis) [$26.0] $27.4 $ 9.6 $ 67
Project X (WB) [$10.5] $11.8 $ 4.0 $ 68
Act of Valor (Rel) [$ 7.5] $ 7.2 $ 2.0 $ 74
Silent House (Open Road) [$10.0] $ 6.6 $ 2.6 $ 12
A Thousand Words (Par) [$ 4.5] $ 5.7 $ 1.9 $ 9
Safe House (Uni) [$ 4.7] $ 5.1 $ 1.3 $131
The Vow (Sony) [$ 3.6] $ 4.1 $ 1.3 $130
Journey 2 (WB) [$ 3.9] $ 4.1 $ 0.8 $103
This Means War (Fox) [$ 3.5] $ 4.0 $ 1.2 $ 54
TP’s Good Deeds (LG) [$ 3.5] $ 3.2 $ 0.8 $ 36
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony) [$ —] $ 2.2 $ 0.5 $ 51
The Artist (Wein) [$ —] $ 2.1 $ 0.6 $ 49
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a decent $121 million total Friday-Sunday, up 3% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #10
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012 $121 John Carter $27, Silent House $6.6, 1000 Words $5.5 2011 $118 Battle LA $36, Red Riding Hood $14 Mars Needs Moms $72010 $136 Green Zone $14, She’s Out My League $10
2009 $ 88 Race to Witch Mountain $24, Last House Left $142008 $106 Horton Hears a Who $45, Never Back Down $92008-11Avg $112
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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