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March 21, 2015
 

FRIDAY 3.20.2015 Box Office Report

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #12 of 2015 looks like $119 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, below the norms for this weekend.  

Opening at 3,875 theaters Friday, Insurgent from Lionsgate/Summit is on track for a $50.1 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $59.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $12,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is soft (33% positive overall and 33% positive with top critics).  Insurgent is headed for $130 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,816 theaters Friday, The Gunman from Open Road Films is on track for a $5.0 million opening three-day weekend (below our $7.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $1,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (13% positive overall and 19% positive with top critics).  The Gunman is headed for $8 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,320 theaters Friday, Do You Believe? from Pure Flix is on track for a $3.8 million opening three-day weekend (below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak $2,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also weak (13% positive overall).  Do You Believe? is headed for $8 million total domestic.

Weekend 12: March 20-22, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Insurgent LG/Sum [59.0] 50.1 21.2 130
Cinderella Dis [37.8] 34.7 9.7 211
The Gunman OpenRoad [7.5] 5.0 1.7 8
Kingsman: The Secret Service Fox [4.4] 4.9 1.3 131
Run All Night WB [6.3] 4.5 1.4 29
Do You Believe? PureFlix [6.5] 3.8 1.2 8
Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS [4.0] 3.4 .97 34
Focus WB [3.3] 3.2 .93 57
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Par [2.5] 2.7 .59 165
Chappie Sony [2.9] 2.6 .70 32
McFarland, USA Dis [2.4] 2.2 .63 45
American Sniper WB [—] 1.6 .43 360

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Cinderella is headed for $34.7 million this weekend (down -49% from last weekend and slightly below our $37.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $211 million.

Run All Night is headed for $4.5 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and below our $6.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $29 million.

Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $4.9 million this weekend (down -22% from last weekend and near our $4.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $131 million.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $119 million total Friday-Sunday, down -18% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -11% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 12 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $119 Insurgent $50.1, The Gunman $5.0, Do You Believe? $3.8
2014 $133 Divergent $54.6,  Muppets Most Wanted $17.0, God’s Not Dead $9.2
2013 $130 The Croods $43.6, Olympus Has Fallen $30.4, Admission $6.2
2012 $204 The Hunger Games $152.5
2011 $109 Limitless $18.9, The Lincoln Lawyer $13.2, Paul $13.0
Avg 2011-14 $144

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.