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July 26, 2014
 

FRIDAY JULY 25 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #30 of 2014 looks like $137 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, better than our forecast earlier this week ($128 million) but still -8% below the norm for this weekend.

Opening at 3,173 theaters, Lucy from Universal grossed $17.1 million through Friday and is on track for a $46.0 million opening weekend (well above our $35.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $14,500 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is slightly positive (60% positive overall and 61% positive with top critics). Lucy is headed for $134 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,595 theaters, Hercules from Paramount grossed $11.1 million Friday and is on track for a $30.0 million opening weekend (also well above our $21.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also mildly supportive (63% positive overall and 65% positive with top critics). Hercules is headed for $90 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,762 theaters, And So It Goes from Clarius grossed $1.36 million through Friday and is on track for a $4.0 million opening weekend (slightly above our $3.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $2,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is negative (15% positive overall and a very weak 10% positive with top critics). And So It Goes is headed for $7 million total domestic.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $16.5 million this weekend (down 54% from last weekend and somewhat below our $19.9 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has been adjusted to $228 million.  The Purge: Anarchy is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down 66% from last weekend and slightly below our $11.8 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for The Purge: Anarchy has been adjusted down to $70 million.  Planes: Fire & Rescue is headed for $9.5 million this weekend (down 46% from last weekend and slightly below our $10.5 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Planes: Fire & Rescue has been adjusted down to $58 million.  Sex Tape is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down 62% from last weekend and below our $7.1 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Sex Tape has been adjusted down to $35 million.       

Weekend 30: July 25-27, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Lucy Uni [35.5] 46.0 17.1 134
Hercules Par [21.5] 30.0 11.1 90
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox [19.9] 16.5 4.7 228
The Purge: Anarchy Uni [11.8] 10.0 3.4 70
Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis [10.5] 9.5 2.8 58
Sex Tape Sony [7.1] 5.5 1.9 35
Transformers: Age of Extinction Par [5.6] 4.6 1.3 248
And So It Goes Clar [3.5] 4.0 1.4 7
Tammy WB [4.3] 3.5 1.1 90
22 Jump Street Sony [2.3] 3.2 1.0 198

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $137 million total Friday-Sunday, down 8% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 13% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 30 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $137 Lucy $46.0, Hercules $30.0, And So It Goes $4.0
2013 $158 The Wolverine $53.1, Fruitvale Station $4.6
2012 $126 The Watch $12.8, Step Up Revolution $11.7
2011 $171 Cowboys & Aliens $36.4, The Smurfs $35.6
2010 $136 Salt $36.0, Ramona and Beezus $7.8
Avg 2010-13 $148

The Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report (normally posted Sunday) will return next week.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.