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Chronicle is coming in above forecast, pulling in $8.65 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $15.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. Conventional wisdom is that the more male-skewing Chronicle will be passed by Woman in Black on Super Bowl Sunday, but we are projecting that both films will be hammered by the most-watched television event of the year and Chronicle will narrowly win the weekend with a superior Saturday. Chronicle is headed for a preliminary $61 million total domestic.
The Woman in Black is also beating our prediction: earning $8.3 million Friday for an estimated $19.7 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $15 million prediction. The horror thriller starring Harry Potter’s Daniel Radcliffe is headed for a preliminary $55 million domestic.
Big Miracle is hitting its very modest expectation: a small $2.3 million Friday for $7.9 million this weekend, equal to the $8 million forecast. Big Miracle is on track for only $29 million total domestic.
The Grey is the best holdover film, on track to drop 53% to $9.3 million in its second weekend (shy of our $10+ million forecast).
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Chronicle (Fox) [$15.5] $20.4 $ 8.7 $ 61
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$15.0] $19.7 $ 8.3 $ 55
The Grey (Open Road) [$10.5] $ 9.3 $ 3.1 $ 59
Big Miracle (Uni) [$ 8.0] $ 7.9 $ 2.3 $ 29
One for the Money (LG) [$ 6.0] $ 5.4 $ 1.7 $ 27
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ 5.8] $ 5.1 $ 1.7 $ 66
Red Tails (Fox) [$ 5.4] $ 4.8 $ 1.5 $ 52
The Descendants (Fox) [$—-] $ 4.7 $ 1.4 $ 78
Man on a Ledge (Sum) [$ 4.0] $ 4.4 $ 1.5 $ 23
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$ 4.3] $ 4.0 $ 1.2 $ 37
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $92 million total Friday-Sunday, up 26% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 6% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years. The box office is certainly not as sick as it was last year, but remember these numbers are not anything to get excited about. Just look again at the table above and glance at the right column (the estimated final domestic grosses for each film). A lot of middling performers, with nothing close to $100 million movies (the highest being $78 million among recent wide releases).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #5
2012 $ 92 Chronicle $20, Woman in Black $20, Big Miracle $8
2011 $ 73 The Roommate $15, Sanctum $9
2010 $100 Dear John $30, From Paris with Love $8
2009 $131 He’s Just Not That Into You $28, Coraline $17
2008 $ 90 Fool’s Gold $22, Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins $16
2008-11
Avg $ 99
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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