Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #26 of 2015 looks like $168 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down slightly from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,442 theaters Friday, Ted 2 from Universal is on track for a $34.0 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $58.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an above average but not great $9,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (46% positive overall and 38% positive with top critics). Ted 2 is headed for $108 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,855 theaters Friday, Max from Warner Brothers is on track for a $13.0 million opening three-day weekend (near our $13.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a $4,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is soft (39% positive overall and 45% positive with top critics). Max is headed for $33 million total domestic.
| Weekend 26: June 26-28, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Inside Out | Dis | [51.1] | 50.0 | 14.9 | 316 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | [56.9] | 49.5 | 14.7 | 655 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | [58.0] | 34.0 | 13.2 | 108 | |
| Max | WB | [13.5] | 13.0 | 4.35 | 33 | |
| Spy | Fox | [7.4] | 6.9 | 2.12 | 108 | |
| San Andreas | WB | [5.3] | 4.8 | 1.43 | 156 | |
| Dope | OpenR | [3.1] | 2.4 | .84 | 20 | |
| Insidious Chapter 3 | Foc/Uni | [2.3] | 1.8 | .66 | 53 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [—] | 1.6 | .46 | 453 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | [1.7] | 1.5 | .45 | 154 | |
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | [2.0] | 1.2 | .45 | 188 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Inside Out is headed for $50.0 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and near our $51.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $316 million.
Jurassic World is headed for $49.5 million this weekend (down -54% from last weekend and somewhat below our $56.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $655 million.
Spy is headed for $6.9 million this weekend (down -39% from last weekend and near our $7.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $108 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $168 million total Friday-Sunday, down -10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -3% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 26 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $168 | Ted 2 $34.0, Max $13.0 | |
| 2014 | $173 | Transformers: Age of Extinction $100.0 | |
| 2013 | $183 | The Heat $39.1, White House Down $24.9 | |
| 2012 | $197 | Ted $54.4, Magic Mike $39.1, TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection $25.4 | |
| 2011 | $192 | Transformers: Dark of the Moon $97.9, Larry Crowne $13.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $186 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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