March 14, 2015

FRIDAY 3.13.2015 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #11 of 2015 looks like $123 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up solidly from the norms for this weekend.  

Opening at 3,845 theaters Friday, Cinderella from Disney is on track for a $70.0 million opening three-day weekend (near our $69.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a strong $18,200 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very supportive (84% positive overall and 83% positive with top critics).  Cinderella is headed for $207 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,171 theaters Friday, Run All Night from Warner Brothers is on track for a $10.3 million opening three-day weekend (below our $14.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a soft $3,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is tilting positive (59% positive overall but a mediocre 48% positive with top critics).  Run All Night is headed for $33 million total domestic.

Weekend 11: March 13-15, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Cinderella Dis [69.5] 70.0 23.0 207
Run All Night WB [14.5] 10.3 3.9 33
Kingsman: The Secret Service Fox [5.5] 6.2 1.7 124
Focus WB [6.0] 5.9 1.7 59
Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS [6.1] 5.7 1.6 34
Chappie Sony [6.8] 5.2 1.5 29
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water Par [3.8] 4.6 .95 165
McFarland, USA Dis [3.5] 3.7 1.0 44
American Sniper WB [—] 3.0 .75 360
The DUFF CBS/LG [3.0] 2.9 .95 36
Fifty Shades of Grey Foc/Uni [2.7] 2.8 .94 162

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $6.2 million this weekend (down -25% from last weekend and above our $5.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $124 million.

Focus is headed for $5.9 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and near our $6.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $59 million.

Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is headed for $5.7 million this weekend (down -33% from last weekend and a touch below our $6.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $34 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $123 million total Friday-Sunday, up +23% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +20% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 11 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $123 Cinderella $70.0, Run All Night $10.3
2014 $102 Need for Speed $17.8, TP’s Single Moms Club $8.1
2013 $96 The Call $17.1, Incredible Burt Wonderstone $10.2
2012 $98 21 Jump Street $36.3, Friends with Kids $1.5
2011 $103 Battle: Los Angeles $35.6, Red Riding Hood $14.0, Mars Needs Moms $6.9
Avg 2011-14 $100

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.