Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #9 of 2015 looks like $86 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down significantly from the norms for this weekend and the first down weekend since January 9-11.
Opening at 3,323 theaters Friday, Focus from Warner Brothers is on track for a $18.5 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $21.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a mediocre $5,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is slightly positive (56% positive overall and 54% positive with top critics). Focus is headed for $56 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,666 theaters Friday, Lazarus Effect from Relativity is on track for a $9.2 million opening three-day weekend (also below our $11.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $3,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hostile (15% positive overall and 13% positive with top critics). Lazarus Effect is headed for $16 million total domestic.
| Weekend 9: February 27-March 1, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Focus | WB | [21.5] | 18.5 | 6.5 | 56 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [10.6] | 10.8 | 3.1 | 113 | |
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | [10.1] | 9.9 | 3.5 | 156 | |
| Lazarus Effect | Rel | [11.0] | 9.2 | 3.8 | 16 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [10.0] | 8.9 | 2.1 | 160 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [6.8] | 7.1 | 1.9 | 361 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | [7.0] | 6.8 | 2.0 | 40 | |
| The DUFF | CBS/LG | [6.1] | 6.5 | 2.1 | 36 | |
| Still Alice | SonyC | [—] | 2.5 | .75 | n/a | |
| Hot Tub Time Machine 2 | Par | [2.7] | 2.1 | .69 | 13 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $10.8 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and near our $10.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $113 million.
Fifty Shades of Grey is headed for $9.9 million this weekend (down -56% from last weekend and near our $10.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $156 million.
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is headed for $8.9 million this weekend (down -46% from last weekend and below our $10.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $160 million.
American Sniper is headed for $7.1 million this weekend (down -29% from last weekend and near our $6.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $361 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $86 million total Friday-Sunday, down -27% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -20% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 9 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $86 | Focus $18.5, Lazarus Effect $9.2 | |
| 2014 | $108 | Non-Stop $28.9, Son of God $25.6 | |
| 2013 | $93 | Jack the Giant Slayer $27.2, 21 and Over $8.8, The Last Exorcism $7.7 | |
| 2012 | $152 | Dr Seuss’ The Lorax $70.2, Project X $21.1 | |
| 2011 | $121 | Hall Pass $13.5, Drive Angry 3D $5.2 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $118 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
