Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #7 of 2015 looks like $188 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above the norms for this weekend.
Opening at 3,646 theaters Friday, Fifty Shades of Grey from Focus/ Universal is on track for a $77.0 million opening three-day weekend (comfortably above our $67.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a nice $21,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is cool at best (27% positive overall and 32% positive with top critics). Fifty Shades of Grey is headed for $195 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,204 theaters Friday, Kingsman: The Secret Service from 20th Century Fox is on track for a $34.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $26.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid $10,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is reasonably supportive (71% positive overall and a 67% positive with top critics). Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $105 million total domestic.
| Weekend 7: February 13-15, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | [67.5] | 77.0 | 30.2 | 195 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [26.5] | 34.0 | 10.5 | 105 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [35.0] | 32.0 | 6.5 | 175 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [18.0] | 15.5 | 3.8 | 353 | |
| Jupiter Ascending | WB | [8.5] | 7.9 | 2.0 | 43 | |
| Paddington | Weins | [4.3] | 4.0 | .82 | 72 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | [3.8] | 3.8 | .80 | 90 | |
| Seventh Son | Uni | [3.6] | 3.0 | .85 | 12 | |
| The Wedding Ringer | Sony | [3.5] | 2.8 | .62 | 66 | |
| Project Almanac | Par | [3.2] | n/a | .56 | 23 | |
| Black or White | Rel | [3.2] | 2.6 | .61 | 23 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is headed for $32.0 million this weekend (down -42% from last weekend and slightly below our $35.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $175 million.
American Sniper is headed for $15.5 million this weekend (down -33% from last weekend and somewhat below our $18.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $353 million.
Jupiter Ascending is headed for $7.9 million this weekend (down -57% from last weekend and near our $8.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $43 million.
Paddington is headed for $4.0 million this weekend (down -23% from last weekend and near our $4.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $72 million.
The Imitation Game is headed for $3.8 million this weekend (down -20% from last weekend and matching our $3.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $90 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $188 million total Friday-Sunday, up +34% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +17% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 7 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $188 | Fifty Shades of Grey $77.0, Kingsman: Secret Service $34.0 | |
| 2014 | $160 | About Last Night $35.6, RoboCop $21.7, Endless Love $13.3, Winter’s Tale $7.3 | |
| 2013 | $126 | A Good Day to Die $24.8, Safe Haven $21.4, Escape from Planet Earth $15.9 | |
| 2012 | $143 | Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance $22.1, This Means War $17.4 | |
| 2011 | $130 | Just Go With It $30.5, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never $29.5, Gnpmeo and Juliet $25.4 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $140 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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