Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #52 of 2014 looks like $192 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up +21% from the norm for this weekend ($158 million) and up +6% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,131 theaters Thursday, Unbroken from Universal is on track for a $32.3 million opening three-day weekend (well above our bearish $20.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $10,300 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Including Thursday (Christmas Day), the film should total almost $48 million through Sunday for the first four days. Critical sentiment is rather restrained (50% positive overall and 59% positive with top critics). Unbroken is headed for $150 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,440 theaters Thursday, Into the Woods from Disney is on track for a $32.2 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $27.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good $13,200 per theater for the weekend. Including Thursday, the films should total about $47 million through Sunday for the first four days. Critical sentiment is solid (72% positive overall and 86% positive with top critics). Into the Woods is headed for $155 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,478 theaters Thursday, The Gambler from Paramount is on track for an $8.4 million opening three-day weekend (a touch below our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $3,400 per theater for the weekend. Including Christmas, the film should total $13.4 million through Sunday for the first four days. Critical sentiment is not encouraging (46% positive overall and 37% positive with top critics). The Gambler is headed for $42 million total domestic.
Now playing at 747 theaters, The Imitation Game from Weinstein Company is headed for a terrific $11,100 per theater average for Friday-Sunday in its fifth weekend, That’s $8.3 million for the weekend and a $15 million total through Sunday. A long successful run lies ahead with many awards to come, including an extremely likely Best Actor Oscar for Benedict Cumberbatch.
Wild from Fox Searchlight is up to 1,285 theaters in its fourth weekend but is headed for only $4,000 per theater this Friday-Sunday. That’s $5.2 million for the weekend and $16.1 million through Sunday, but it should lose altitude fast.
The Interview from Sony gave it the old college try at 331 theaters and headed for a relatively meager $5,400 per theater for Friday-Sunday: $1.8 million for the weekend and $2.8 million through Sunday.
At only 4 theaters to qualify for the Oscars, American Sniper from Warner Brothers is headed for a mammoth $145,000 per theater for the weekend: $580,000 for the weekend and $820,000 through Sunday.
| Weekend 52: December 26-28, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Four-Days Dec 25-28 | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | [35.3] | 42.5 | 55.6 | 295 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | [20.0] | 32.3 | 47.9 | 150 | |
| Into the Woods | Dis | [27.5] | 32.2 | 47.3 | 155 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | [18.3] | 20.5 | 27.8 | 120 | |
| Annie | Sony | [16.4] | 17.0 | 21.6 | 98 | |
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | [8.2] | 10.2 | 12.9 | 340 | |
| The Gambler | Par | [9.5] | 8.4 | 13.4 | 42 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | [—] | 8.3 | 11.1 | 75 | |
| Exodus: Gods and Kings | Fox | [5.7] | 6.5 | 9.5 | 60 | |
| Wild | Fox S | [4.6] | 5.2 | 6.9 | 48 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [4.4] | 4.8 | 6.1 | 220 | |
| Top Five | Par | [—] | 3.8 | 5.3 | 35 | |
| Penguins of Madagascar | Fox/DWA | [—] | 3.0 | 3.8 | 84 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [—] | 2.9 | 4.0 | 189 | |
| Big Eyes | Weins | [—] | 2.9 | 4.3 | n/a | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies is headed for $42.5 million this weekend (down -22% from last weekend and well above our $35.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $295 million.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb is headed for $20.5 million this weekend (up a great +20% from last weekend and a touch above our $18.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $120 million.
Annie is headed for $17.0 million this weekend (up +7% from last weekend and near our $16.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $98 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $192 million total Friday-Sunday, up +21% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +6% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 52 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $192 | Unbroken $32.3, Into the Woods $32.2, The Gambler $8.4 | |
| 2013 | $182 | Wolf of Wall Street $18.4, Secret Life of Walter Mitty $12.8, 47 Ronin $9.9 | |
| 2012 | $164 | Django Unchained $30.1, Les Miserables $27.3, Parental Guidance $14.6 | |
| 2011 | $140 | Girl with Dragon Tattoo $12.8, Adventures of Tin Tin $9.7, We Bought a Zoo $9.4 | |
| 2010 | $149 | Little Fockers $30.8, True Grit $24.9, Gulliver’s Travels $6.3 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $158 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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