Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #40 of 2014 looks like $129 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 25% above the norm for this weekend ($104 million). A great start for the fall movie season.
Opening at 3,014 theaters, Gone Girl from 20th Century Fox grossed $13.2 million Friday and is on track for a $36.5 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $31.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good $12,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is quite positive (87% positive overall and 81% positive with top critics). Gone Girl is headed for $113 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,185 theaters, Annabelle from Warner Brothers/New Line grossed $15.5 million Friday and is on track for a $31.0 million opening three-day weekend (also somewhat above our $27.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a solid $9,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mostly negative (30% positive overall and 36% positive with top critics) and can be expected to decay at a normally high rate for horror/thrillers. Annabelle is headed for $79 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,820 theaters, Left Behind from Freestyle Releasing grossed $2.4 million Friday and is on track for a $7.0 million opening three-day weekend (a touch above our $6.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a really bad $3,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hateful (2% positive overall and 0% positive with top critics). Left Behind is headed for $11 million total domestic if the wind blows right.
The Equalizer is headed for $17.5 million this weekend (down 49% from last weekend and near our $17.0 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Equalizer has been adjusted up to $107 million. The Boxtrolls is headed for $10.4 million this weekend (down 40% from last weekend and nailing our $10.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for The Boxtrolls has been adjusted down to $58 million. The Maze Runner is headed for $11.5 million this weekend (down 34% from last weekend and above our $9.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Maze Runner has been adjusted up to $100 million.
| Weekend 40: October 3-5, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Gone Girl | Fox | [31.5] | 36.5 | 13.2 | 113 | |
| Annabelle | WB | [27.0] | 31.0 | 15.5 | 79 | |
| The Equalizer | Sony | [17.0] | 17.5 | 5.6 | 107 | |
| The Maze Runner | Fox | [9.8] | 11.5 | 3.4 | 100 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | [10.4] | 10.4 | 2.7 | 58 | |
| Left Behind | Free | [6.0] | 7.0 | 2.4 | 11 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | [4.2] | 4.0 | 1.2 | 38 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | [2.9] | 3.0 | .80 | 43 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [2.7] | 3.0 | .80 | 335 | |
| No Good Deed | Sony | [2.1] | 2.4 | .74 | 52 | |
| A Walk Among the Tombstones | Uni | [—] | 2.0 | .60 | 28 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $129 million total Friday-Sunday, up 25% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 12% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 40 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $129 | Gone Girl $36.5, Annabelle $31.0, Left Behind $7.0 | |
| 2013 | $115 | Gravity $55.8, Runner Runner $7.7, Pulling Strings $2.5 | |
| 2012 | $133 | Taken 2 $49.5, Frankenweenie $11.4 | |
| 2011 | $85 | Real Steel $27.3, Ides of March $10.5 | |
| 2010 | $81 | Social Network $22.4, Case 59 $5.4, Let Me In $5.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $104 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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