Articles

October 13, 2018
 

EARLY FRIDAY BOX OFFICE: “Venom” Drops, “A Star Is Born” Holds, “First Man” Sluggish

 

There may be a pair of tight races at the box office this weekend.  Based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, VENOM (Tencent/Columbia/Sony) has the early lead with $9.5M on Friday, down 71% from last week’s opening day.  That’s much worse than the 54% Friday-to-Friday drop for Doctor Strange and the 57% for Justice League, and suggests that a best case scenario for the weekend will be $32M, with a lower number if Sunday doesn’t live up to last week’s strong Sunday performance.  Venom is pointing toward a $200M US total.

A STAR IS BORN (MGM/Warners) had very different word of mouth, down 43% from last Friday to $8.9M, which could mean a $31M weekend and a shot for the weekend title.  As of now, A Star Is Born is headed toward $150M in the US, but that total has plenty of potential upside with a lengthy run.

FIRST MAN (Perfect World/Universal) is starting quietly with $5.9M on Friday (including $1.1M from Thursday night).  That’s the same number as the wide opening for The Post, another serious historical story aimed at older audiences, which reached $19.4M for its opening weekend.  That film, though, had the advantage of a January start in the thick of Oscar season, and First Man may settle at $16.5M or so.  First Man  is intended for a long awards run, so a slow start isn’t necessarily fatal, but with $150M+ in production/marketing costs, it has a long road ahead to profitability.

It would be embarrassing for First Man to fall behind GOOSEBUMPS 2: HAUNTED HALLOWEEN (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) for the weekend.  The sequel’s Friday was lower at $4.9M (down 33% from the first day of the original Goosebumps), but a big set of weekend matinees could push the weekend to $16M, very close to First ManGoosebumps 2 cost considerably less than the first film, but still has $125M or so in costs, and a $50M US total would make overseas appeal necessary for profit.

The arrival of Goosebumps 2 didn’t hurt SMALLFOOT (Warners Animation) too badly, down 38% on its 3rd Friday to $2.1M, with a $9M weekend ahead.  It continues to be on its way to a so-so $75M in the US.

BAD TIMES AT THE EL ROYALE (20th) had an indie feel despite its big-studio release, and was left with plenty of vacant rooms on a $2.9M Friday, perhaps getting it to $8M for the weekend with limited prospects.

NIGHT SCHOOL (Perfect World/Universal) dropped 41% on its 3rd Friday to $2.1M, with a $7.5M weekend ahead, as it proceeds toward $75M in the US.

THE HOUSE WITH A CLOCK IN ITS WALLS (DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) fell 43% on its 4th Friday to $1M, for a $4M weekend and a likely $70M US total.

THE HATE U GIVE (20th) expanded to 248 theatres before going wide next week, and may have a mild $6000 per-theatre weekend average.



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."