VENOM (Tencent/Columbia/Sony) is the first big-budget action movie to open since The Meg in mid-August, and that (plus a huge marketing campaign) seems to have gotten it past murderous reviews for an enormous start, the biggest ever in October. Preliminary numbers at Deadline have opening day at $32.3M (including $10M from a Thursday that started earlier than usual at 5PM), in the neighborhood of Doctor Strange‘s $32.6M and Thor: The Dark World‘s $31.9M. That suggests a weekend around $84M, although bad word of mouth could still pull it below $80M. In any case, it’s certainly on the road to a successful run, and the big-name actor who turns up in the mid-credits sequence for a preview of the planned sequel will probably get to actually make that movie.
Venom may burn out fairly quickly (the new Halloween will pounce on its audience in 2 weeks), while A STAR IS BORN (MGM/Warners) is built for the long haul of awards season. It’s likely to set its own record to start, the biggest non-Disney musical opening in history, with a Friday at $16.4M (including $4.6M from screenings that began on Tuesday night) that should bring it to $44M by Sunday. It has October to itself, with no direct competition until Bohemian Rhapsody on November 2, and with moderate production costs (although Warners went all-in on the marketing), it should be highly profitable, especially if it has international appeal.
SMALLFOOT (Warners Animation) held well with a 45% Friday-to-Friday drop to $3.5M, which should give it a $14M weekend (and extra benefit from the Columbus Day holiday on Monday). Those are still mild numbers, and the US total won’t be much beyond $75M.
NIGHT SCHOOL (Perfect World/Universal) fell 62% from last Friday to $3.6M, worse than the 56% 2nd Friday drop for Central Intelligence and the 47% for Girls Trip. A $12.5M weekend would put it on a track for $70-75M in the US, a bit better than Kevin Hart’s The Wedding Ringer.
THE HOUSE WITH A CLOCK IN ITS WALLS (DreamWorks/Reliance/Universal) dropped 45% on its 3rd Friday to $1.7M, for a $7M weekend and a likely $70M US total.
A SIMPLE FAVOR (Lionsgate) lost 50% on its 4th Friday to $1M, headed for a $3.3M weekend and $55M in the US.
THE NUN (New Line/Warners) fell 54% on its 5th Friday to $750K, for a $2.5M weekend as it heads to $120M in the US.
HELL FEST (CBS/Lionsgate) crashed by 65% from last Friday to $700K, on its way to a $2M weekend and $15M in the US.
THE HATE YOU GIVE (20th) opened a limited engagement at 36 theatres before going wide in 2 weeks, and is on track for an OK $17K per-theatre weekend average (and should also benefit from the Monday holiday), roughly the same average Venom will have at 4250. FREE SOLO (NatGeo) expanded to 41 theatres and should have a good $14K average. COLETTE (Bleecker Street) widened to 107 for a $4500 weekend average. THE SISTERS BROTHERS (Annapurna), now at 54, may average $4K for the weekend.
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