By superhero movie standards, SHAZAM (DC/New Line/Warners) was moderately priced, with around $225M in production/marketing costs. Preliminary numbers at Deadline put its opening day at $20M (including $5.9M from Thursday), and although that’s a cut below comic book blockbusters like Captain Marvel ($61.7M), Spider-Man: Homecoming ($50.8M) or Wonder Woman ($38.2M), it’s solidly in line with a mid-level piece in the genre like Ant-Man ($22.6M). Shazam should top $50M for the weekend, with some significant potential upside since it’s particularly aimed at young audience, meaning it may overperform at weekend matinees. That would put it on track for $150M+ in the US, and if the weekend’s international openings (including China) do well, it will be on its way to profitability and a likely sequel.
PET SEMATARY (Paramount) earned $9.7M on its opening day ($2.3M of that from Thursday), out of the league of the recent $28.9M opening day for Us, and just a bit better than last April’s low-budget Truth Or Dare‘s $8.3M. Like the latter (but at a higher budget), Pet Sematary may burn out fast, with a $22M weekend and perhaps a $50M US total.
DUMBO (Disney) fell badly for a family movie, down 67% to $5M from last Friday. That compares to drops on parallel days of 63% for Beauty & The Beast, 49% for The Jungle Book, and 58% for Alice In Wonderland, and is unfortunately on par with the Friday-to-Friday drop for the flop Alice Through The Looking Glass. An $18M weekend would probably mean Dumbo will fall to earth without even reaching $125M in the US, making red ink inevitable unless international markets can rescue it.
US (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) continues to fall much faster than Get Out, down 57% to $4.3M on its 3rd Friday, while Get Out was down just 25% on the parallel day. A $14M weekend would set things up for a neck-and-neck finish with Get Out‘s $176M US total, despite more than doubling Get Out‘s opening weekend.
CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney), perhaps aided by the gathering storm for Avengers: Endgame, is holding very well, down 39% to $3.3M on its 5th Friday. That’s not as strong as the 25% for Black Panther‘s parallel day, but it’s better than the 42% for Avengers: Infinity War, the 46% for Age of Ultron, and the 48% for Captain America: Civil War. With a $13M weekend, Captain Marvel would be back to being on track for a $400M US total.
BEST OF ENEMIES (STX), with a smaller release at 1705 theatres, is nevertheless failing to impress. Its $1.8M opening day may give it a $5M weekend, and without an awards season to push it forward, and with notably mediocre reviews, it may have a hard time getting past $15M in the US, with slender chances overseas.
FIVE FEET APART (CBS/Lionsgate) continues to hold solidly, down 38% to $1.2M on its 4th Friday, and heading for a $4M weekend and a potential $50M US total.
UNPLANNED (Pure Flix) is providing a definition of the term “frontloaded”. Despite expanding its release by 43% for its 2nd weekend, it had a remarkable 62% Friday-to-Friday drop to $1.1M. That means on a per-theatre basis, its Friday average was down over 75%, even worse than many low-budget horror movies face. Since last Friday was frontloaded in its own right, those numbers will moderate over the weekend, perhaps to $4M for the 3 days, but the US total may not get past $20M.
WONDER PARK (Nickelodeon/Paramount) dropped 54% on its 4th Friday to under $600K, with a $2M weekend ahead and a US total that probably won’t reach $50M.
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